Who would win a game of unmoved watching? The two most important men in the stands in Beijing on Friday, at the opening of the Winter Olympics, are being ignored by the West these days. Xi Jinping (68) will try to convey that the diplomatic boycott by the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries is not affecting him. Vladimir Putin (69) will insist that not he, but NATO is the aggressor in the conflict over Ukraine.
Both leaders have their own conflicts with the West, using roughly the same principle: mind your own business. Xi does care how he treats the people of Xinjiang and Hong Kong. And if Putin wants to move troops on his own territory, he can do it himself. This belief, feeling misunderstood, drives them into each other’s arms.
What makes these two leaders different from each other? Are they allies or is their relationship purely transactional? Will the world become less safe if they work together more? At the moment, where both could use some help, at least they can count on each other.
Putin wants to save Xi’s honor and take a seat in the stands in the Bird’s Nest stadium. In addition to UN boss Guterres, Xi must also talk about leaders as Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman. Conversely, China verbally supports Russia in the quarrel over Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, the two presidents in Beijing will talk “for a long time” about “security in Europe”.
Common Enemy
The rapprochement between Russia and China has been going on for years. But lately, it has accelerated in several areas. Last year, Xi and Putin celebrated the twentieth anniversary of a friendship treaty at a virtual summit. They found that the relationship between their countries has never been better. Trade between them is thriving, they work together on defense and the men reportedly get on well.
Moreover, they have a common enemy. The struggle that both are independently waging against the US pushes the two powers towards each other. The irritation about the US is now so great in both capitals, analysts say, that all differences of opinion are temporarily put aside.
Recently showed Hu Xijin, commentator of the state-run newspaper Global Times, for example understanding the Russian grievances. Russia’s demand that Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO is “reasonable,” he says. “How Russia deals with Ukraine is one thing, but when it comes to resisting American pressure, Russia is not alone. A majority of the Chinese population would support that.”
When Russia took Crimea in 2014, China tried to hold back: when the UN Security Council voted on a resolution condemning the annexation, China abstained. Last Monday, when Russia tried to avoid a debate on Ukraine in the V Council, China was the only one to support Russia.
Should things escalate in Ukraine and the West impose a sanctions package on Russia, the question arises as to which side China will take. In 2014 it condemned the Western sanctions, but Chinese banks were also allowed to cooperate, for fear of being disconnected from international payments.
At the time, China could also do very little to help Russia evade sanctions, experts say. China could not provide the products and services that Russia suddenly needed.
Now it’s different. “If China complies with US sanctions, Beijing will come across as the economically weaker one,” thinks the American Russia expert Chris Miller. By contrast, if China resisted, “Russia would have a key ally in the crisis — and the West would be embroiled in a two-front financial war.”
Military
In the military field, cooperation is getting stronger. Russia and China are each other main partners in the field of military exercises, albeit without establishing this in a formal alliance. Joint military exercises on land have been going on for years, but have expanded in recent years, with an increasing focus on technology sharing.
China learns a lot from Russia, which has deployed its armed forces more often in recent decades. In addition, the air force and navy also practice together. When China tested a hypersonic missile, defended the Kremlin that as China’s right. Russia is helping China with technology that warns of incoming missiles and they are developing new weapons together, Alex Gabuev of the Carnegie think tank said during a debate recently.
Gas
While Europe questions whether it will really go as far as to block the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline if Putin invades Ukraine, Asia is working hard to expand the pipeline network. That knife cuts both ways: it is good for Russia to have an extra market and to be less dependent on a possible enemy Europe, China can only achieve its climate goals if it replaces coal with Russian gas.
In 2019, the leadership Power of Siberia commissioned, a project by Gazprom and the Chinese CNPC. When this connection is fully operational, 38 billion cubic meters of gas will flow annually from Eastern Siberia to China.
The two countries are now planning an expansion: Power of Siberia 2, which should double supplies. Gazprom had intended to run this tube through Xinjiang, but ran into it objections from China, which does not want any risks in the region where the Uyghur minority lives. A route via Mongolia has now been chosen. Analysts expect Xi and Putin to announce an agreement in principle in Beijing.
Read also Is China Affected By The US Boycott Of The Olympics Or Not?
Space Besides Ukraine, Putin and Xi will also talk about trade and space in Beijing, the Kremlin has announced. Despite hostility over Crimea and Ukraine, Russia and the US still work well together on the International Space Station, where Russia has been flying all astronauts with Soyuz rockets since the US space shuttles went out. But Russia is also increasingly seeking cooperation with China in space. For example, they are working together on a robotic mission to asteroid Kamo’oalewa in two years’ time, and they are planning missions to the moon, where they want to open a permanent research station by 2030. In addition, they plan to integrate their satellite networks, BeiDou and Glonass, both counterparts of the US GPS network. The Chinese space station, where Chinese astronauts celebrated the beginning of the Year of the Tiger this week, will also have to accommodate Russian colleagues in the future.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 3, 2022
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