Acronym grew compared to 2020, but central parties lead the number of mayors elected in the municipalities that voted most for the current president
The group of 3,123 cities that gave victory to Lula in the 2nd round of 2022, it elected on Sunday (Oct 6) only 217 PT mayors in the 2024 municipal elections.
In other words, the president’s party managed to win the mayorship of only 7% of the municipalities that voted mostly for the PT member in the last general elections. Ranks 7th in the ranking of mayors of “Lulista” cities.
Despite this, the result of the 1st round (248 mayors across Brazil) already represents an improvement compared to 2020, when only 182 cities were won, the worst number in two decades.
Parties that have government ministries fared better. PSD, MDB, PP, União Brasil and Republicans lead the number of mayors won in these cities.
Most “Bolsonarist” Cities
The PL’s growth in these elections occurred mainly in the 2,445 cities where the former president Jair Bolsonaro won in the 2nd round 2 years ago. The acronym won 377 of these municipalities. It is more than what had been achieved in the whole of Brazil in 2020.
Performance comparison
The centrist parties were the most victorious in these elections. The majority performed slightly better in cities more aligned with Bolsonaro, but they also performed well in those aligned with Lula.
Here are 3 highlights about the efficiency of parties in municipalities that aligned more closely with Lula or Bolsonaro in 2022:
- PP – there are 15.6% of “Bolsonarista” municipalities against 12% of “Lulista” municipalities. In absolute numbers, however, it has practically the same number of city halls on each side (375 X 373, respectively);
- Republicans – the conservative party does better in the cities that gave Lula victory. There are 267 city halls won in this group compared to 169 among the cities that vote most for Bolsonaro;
- PT and PL – of the 248 PT city halls, 217 (or 88%) came from the most “Lulista” cities. On the opposite side, 377 of the PL’s 512 achievements (74%) came from municipalities most aligned with Bolsonaro.
IDEOLOGY & CITIES
Political science shows that the tendency in municipal elections is for citizens to choose the mayor based on concrete proposals and achievements. Asphalted streets, daycare centers with parking spaces, public transport and other municipal policies directly affect the population’s daily lives and votes.
In 2024, Lula and Bolsonaro tried to bring the polarization that exists at the federal level to the selection of mayors. The result of the 1st round shows that the strategy did not completely work: the most efficient parties were those that balanced between the 2 poles.
The amendments they helped a lot in this positive assessment of the achievements of current mayors, contributing to the re-election rate reaching a record 82%. Mayors who received the most amendments are those who managed to do things, carry out projects. They have something more to show”, says researcher George Avelino, from FGV.
It is not possible, however, to disregard the 36% increase in the number of mayors from the PT and 49% from the PL.
The data above shows the following municipal scenario emerging from the 1st round:
- parties most linked to polarization – some acronyms only performed well in cities more aligned with the current or former president. On Lula’s side, in addition to PT, this is the case of PSB (83% of mayors in cities “lulistas”) and Avante (also 83%), in addition to dwarfs such as PV, PC do B and Rede (100% in all cases). On Bolsonaro’s side, the PL was the only relevant party that won a significantly greater number of city halls in the aligned cities. Novo also has a high percentage (78%) of mayors won in these territories, but its performance is poor at the municipal level. It cannot be ignored that there is not always a cause and effect relationship between “Lulismo” or “Bolsonarismo” and the party. The PSB, for example, is more organized and gets more votes in cities in the Northeast, where Lula also leads;
- less polarized parties – the big winners of these elections –PSD, MDB, PP and União Brasil– do not concentrate their chips on either side. Republicans and PDT had more mayors elected in cities “lulistas”but they achieved a not very distant performance in the “bolsonaristas”. The PSDB, which continues to move towards extinction, also has no significant difference in performance between the two groups of cities.
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