The campaign of the government candidate for President of Argentina, Sergio Massa, has been notoriously shaped by the influence of Brazilian marketers linked to the PT. Both in the speech and in the advertising pieces, it is evident the adoption of narratives to disqualify the opponent similar to those used by the PT candidates for Planalto in the 2014 and 2022 presidential races.
In 2014, the then candidate for re-election, Dilma Rousseff (PT), who was threatened by her errors in economic management, resorted to strategies that aimed to instill fear among voters regarding the possible loss of social benefits.
The same approach was noted in Sergio Massa’s electoral propaganda and in the Argentine government’s official communication, warning about the risks in the event of the victory of the right-wing opposition candidate, the libertarian Javier Milei.
Likewise, the same tone as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) campaign against Jair Bolsonaro (PL) last year can be seen in the Peronist presidential candidate’s slogans and speeches. With Milei being associated with the figure of the former Brazilian president, PT strategists explored a possible repulsion for an anti-system name, which could cast uncertainty on the markets and put an end to current income transfer, health care and education programs. public, in addition to labor rights.
There is, also due to Brazilian advisors, a growing rhetoric from Massa’s campaign against the libertarian candidate’s proposal to facilitate the possession of firearms, trying to connect it to possible incidents involving young people and children.
The reinforcement of attacks on Milei in the final stretch of the campaign revealed the weight of the PT team in the Peronist campaign, with which they have collaborated since September. Advertisers worked hard to prevent the opposition’s victory in the first round, with concentrated action on social media, in which the libertarian is influential, driven by an engaged young audience.
In addition to social programs and gun ownership, marketers also explored Milei’s other controversial points, such as his harsh criticism of Pope Francis, whom he accuses of being close to “murderous communists”. The libertarian candidate had to back down at this point.
Another similarity with the PT campaigns was Massa’s exposure in meetings with young people and artists. And one difference was the focus on nationalism as a counterpoint to the supposed denationalization of local production due to a radical commercial opening to be proposed by Milei.
Team worked on leftist campaigns in South America
Among the PT marketers involved in the team of the candidate supported by current Argentine president Alberto Fernández and Lula are Otávio Antunes, Raul Rabelo and Halley Arrais.
Antunes campaigned for Fernando Haddad (PT) for the government of São Paulo in 2022, in addition to the presidential campaigns of Gustavo Petro, in Colombia, and Efraín Alegre, in Paraguay. Rabelo was in Lula’s last campaign and Arrais worked with the Gaucho government candidate Edegar Pretto (PT).
This group was also joined by Chico Kertesz, responsible for a Massa campaign video in which he addresses the issue of the weapons release policy defended by Milei. In it, a child in a classroom takes out a revolver from his backpack, followed by the written message: “this is not the reality of Argentina, but it could become”. “Milei não” at the end makes an indirect reference to “Ele não”, used in Brazil against Bolsonaro.
Planalto fears disruption to strategic partnership with Casa Rosada
For Ricardo Caichiolo, political scientist and postgraduate coordinator at Ibmec-DF, Planalto’s fears of an eventual Milei victory, to the point of directly engaging in Massa’s campaign, can be explained by its potential negative impact on the relationship between Brazil and Argentina.
“With controversial and ultra-liberal positions, such as defending the dollarization of the economy and the end of the Central Bank, Milei’s political figure challenges the history of the bilateral partnership, already marked by ups and downs,” he said. “A radical change in the Argentine political scenario could even impact regional cooperation, notably in relation to Mercosur, as the candidate has already defended the end of the bloc,” he added.
Sergio Massa’s turnaround, having come first in the elections on Sunday (22) in Argentina, with 37% of the votes, ahead of the libertarian economist Javier Milei, with 30%, caused a huge surprise. After all, Massa is Minister of Economy of a country that has annualized inflation of around 140%, one of the worst rates in the world. Behind the scenes, Massa recognized the importance of the campaign led by Brazilian advertisers for his passage to the second round, beating Milei.
Following the example of what Dilma did in 2014, in recent months Massa has granted even more social checks to workers, bonuses to retirees, tax reductions for the majority of the population, in addition to other benefits to the poor population at a high cost to the public coffers, making a serious recession is even more possible ahead.
Furthermore, he sought to distance himself from the current president, who remained hidden from the campaign. The tendency for the second round, guided by Brazilian marketers, is to invest in the image of the supposed guarantor of democracy, similar to Lula’s tone in 2022.
Mass populism boosts anything goes in the second round
Massa’s populism is in line with his pragmatic profile, which led him to change his position on several occasions throughout his career. He now seeks to unite divisions within Peronism and attract votes from the left and center-right.
Upon reaching the second round, attracting a portion of the population averse to change, he is not afraid to highlight the strong presence of the State in daily life.
Not by chance, in his first speech after the election results were announced, Sergio Massa expressed concerns about a potential risk to Milei’s victory represented by “uncontrolled imports” and their detrimental impact on local industry. Furthermore, he questioned whether Argentines wanted public universities to close and warned about possible damage to Social Security and the supply of medicines. This story has already been told in Brazil.
Massa defended the need for “a State that protects the unemployed, preserves labor rights such as paid holidays and removes the threat of turning workers into slaves”, using a similar discourse to that of the Brazilian left in relation to labor reform.
In her first demonstration after the counting of votes, Milei signaled that she wants to form an alliance with the center-right candidate Patricia Bullrich, who came in third place, with 23% of the votes. He stated that, if the country wants change, it is necessary to form an alliance to defeat the Peronists. “Two thirds of Argentines voted for change, an alternative to this government of delinquents,” she said.
Search for alliances will define new priorities for both campaigns
Leandro Gabiati, director of Dominium Consultoria, predicts that Sergio Massa will maintain his campaign strategy in the second round in line with what he adopted in the first.
The most notable change will be led by Javier Milei, who has attracted attention by adopting a moderate tone and showing interest in the alliance with Patricia Bullrich and former president Maurício Macri.
According to the Argentine political scientist, both are signaling a stance open to dialogue with other political forces, which is considered the sensible choice at the moment.
“It is the remaining alternative. Naturally, this will imply costs for Milei, but to achieve victory, he needs to make this move. On the other hand, the already uncontrolled increase in public spending, with the injection of more resources until the next vote and the government operating at its maximum, will create a free-for-all climate. This scenario pleases the beneficiaries, but displeases the middle class, which pays the bill”, he observed.
In addition to highlighting the comparison with Jair Bolsonaro, the campaign was successful in exploring the economic turbulence that occurred during the electoral race, such as the overvaluation of the dollar, opposing it to Milei’s dollarization proposal.
The oppositionist has the support of the Bolsonaro family. Representative Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) was in Buenos Aires to follow the first round of the election. Even a jingle composed by samba singer Boca Nervosa is part of the libertarian’s campaign.
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