More than 90 days after the producers begin to sow the new wheat campaign – and ten months after the harvest – there are already 1.2 million tons of the 2021/22 campaign sold for the fear that a possible government intervention in the wheat market or an increase in export duties.
“The volume of wheat traded to date marks an absolute record, underpinned by latent fear of an increase in withholding rates or quantitative or commercial restrictions of another kind,” explains a report from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR ).
The volume of wheat from the new season that is usually marketed by the end of February it’s really marginal because the production that was finished threshing in January is still being marketed and there are even “trawl stocks” from the previous season.
The BCR report states that the 17 million tons of the 2020/21 cycle more than 6 million tons have yet to be sold. “As of February 11, 10.25 million tons of wheat from the current season have been marketed, or 60% of production. Most of the purchases were made by the export sector, which accounts for 87% of the total, with the remainder being held by the milling industry, ”the study states.
The commercialization of the wheat campaign 2020/21 / Source: Rosario Stock Exchange.
In recent weeks, exporters slowed down their cereal purchases because they already covered most of what is projected to ship this year (bought almost 9 million tons of the 10 million tons planned).
As of February 3, the milling industry had bought 1.4 million tonness, 20% of the 6.4 million estimated to be processed for consumption in the domestic market.
Wheat shipments abroad in February remain well below previous years. 440,000 tons were shipped until February 10, 50% less than in 2019.
Comparison of wheat exports during the last three seasons / Source: Rosario Stock Exchange.
“So far in the 2020/21 marketing season, exports show an accumulated interannual fall of 57%. The lower harvest this year, together with the union conflicts that complicated the port activity, attacked the shipping rhythm ”, concludes the report of the Rosario Stock Exchange.