The probability of wildfires that devastate huge areas, such as those registered in Australia in 2019 and in the South American Pantanal in 2020, will increase throughout the century, warns the UN.
Fires, whether natural, accidental or caused, are not caused directly by global warming, but usually due to increasingly intense and prolonged droughts, according to the report by the United Nations and the center for environmental studies GRID-Arendal.
“Even if the most ambitious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are met, the planet will experience a dramatic increase in the frequency of conditions that favor extreme fires,” the report states.
Favorable conditions do not necessarily imply fires. However, even if the planet manages to reduce the average temperature increase to +2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, the main objective of the Paris Agreements, the number of catastrophic fires will increase between 9% and 14% by 2030, between 20% and 33% by 2050 and between 31% and 52% by 2100.
The data involve only the largest fires, which occur once every 100 years.
With the new weather conditions, the unusual events “will slightly increase their probability”, explained one of the authors of the report, Andrew Sullivan, from the Australian agency CSIRO, at a press conference.
The document does not address the increase in all forest fires, regardless of category, but “less extreme episodes are likely to increase in the same way,” he said.
– Wasting money pointlessly –
The case of the Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, located between Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, is emblematic, explains the study.
The region had suffered a severe drought since 2019 and the exceptional fires happened the following year. By August 2021 almost four million hectares had been lost.
“Forest fires and climate change feed each other,” the report highlights. Soils are degraded, CO2 emissions temporarily skyrocket and forests stop fulfilling their carbon capture mission.
“The government’s response is often to spend money where it doesn’t belong,” the authors insist.
“It is necessary to regularly clean the undergrowth, sustainably support and reinforce emergency teams, such as firefighters”, they explain.
The cost of putting out fires is much higher than previous investments to limit damage.
“We have to minimize fire risks with greater preparedness: invest more in risk reduction, work with local communities, reinforce global commitments against climate change,” summarized Inger Andersen, director general of the United Nations Environment Programme. Environment.
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