The RIVM’s earlier forecasts about IC admissions by the omikron variant of the coronavirus were ‘too pessimistic’. “We think we will come out lower, halfway,” said RIVM boss Jaap van Dissel in a briefing for MPs.
According to Van Dissel, the chance that someone with omikron will end up in hospital is also smaller. Although the infections have been rising for weeks, the occupation in nursing wards and on the ICUs is falling. “The situation is much calmer in the hospitals than outside the hospitals. But to say that there are no hospital admissions due to omikron is also not true.” Van Dissel also sees that this decline ‘is now leveling off somewhat’.
He also expects the admissions to increase again in the near future. He bases this on other countries, where Omikron already had an ‘lead’. Hospital admissions are now on the rise. “You don’t want the numbers you see in France and England here.”
Omikron dominant
Omikron has now completely supplanted the earlier delta variant of the coronavirus. Despite the high infection rates – daily and weekly records were broken in recent weeks – the reproduction number (the speed at which the virus circulates) was 1.16 at the beginning of this month. According to Van Dissel, the fact that the R-number is relatively low is possibly due to the use of rapid tests during the Christmas period. “The estimate is that the R will rise again.” This is also due to the recent relaxation.
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The Outbreak Management Team (OMT), the cabinet’s most important corona advisors, will meet tomorrow. New models will also be discussed there. There will be another press conference on Tuesday. The most important question that needs to be answered there is whether the catering industry and culture can open again. Mayors are already discussing this in an extra Security Council. Van Dissel said nothing about any new relaxation.
He did say that the forecasts about the effect of the booster campaign have been ‘too positive’. In the models used by the RIVM, the institute assumed that 90 percent of the over 18s would get a booster. That percentage is lagging considerably behind and is now at 69.3 percent. About 3.4 million Dutch people have not yet achieved the boost. “If we don’t get that up, it will make for less favorable forecasts.” Although he also acknowledges that the effectiveness of the booster for omikron is not 100 percent. The booster’s effect also decreases faster. “You have a certain time window to enjoy the effect,” says Van Dissel.
hip fracture
RIVM is also trying to gain a better insight into the number of people who end up in hospital with omikron rather than through omikron. For example, someone who has omikron with few complaints, who does end up in hospital with a hip fracture. “But measures have to be taken there.”
The OMT also wants to ‘take a critical look’ at the quarantine rules, said Van Dissel, especially at education. Infections and quarantine are already often causing the cancellation of classes and classes that are sitting at home. Currently, 1 in 3 people who have themselves tested at the GGD get a positive test. If the number of infections increases in the near future, it will cause ‘a disruption of society in the coming weeks’. Many people can then sit at home because they have tested positive or have been in contact with someone who had corona.
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