The pressure on Olaf Scholz will increase if Woidke does not remain Prime Minister in Brandenburg, believes political consultant Johannes Hillje. That could shake up the traffic light coalition.
Next Sunday, the course for the future will be set not only in Brandenburg, but also in political Berlin. The result of the Brandenburg election will have an impact on Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the traffic light government. Depending on the election result, the already constantly creaking traffic light coalition could be further destabilized. That is at least the forecast of political consultant Johannes Hillje: “The decisive factor is whether Dietmar Woidke remains Prime Minister or not. If Woidke can stay in office, that will give Olaf Scholz some breathing room,” said Hillje in an interview with IPPEN.MEDIA.
Brandenburg election: “Pressure on Olaf Scholz will increase”
However, it is uncertain whether Woidke will remain Prime Minister. The SPD politician had already announced that he would resign if the AfD became the strongest force instead of the SPD. The Social Democrats and the AfD are currently in a close race. If Woidke and his party do not come first, he will have missed his election goal. “That would be held against Olaf Scholz,” says Hillje. “If Woidke does not win the election and remain Prime Minister, that will destabilize the traffic light coalition because tensions within the SPD will grow and the pressure on Scholz will increase.”
After the elections in Thuringia and Saxony, there were already calls from SPD leader Lars Klingbeil, among others, that the SPD must become more visible in the coalition. “Scholz should become the driving force. And this role could fuel the conflicts in the traffic light coalition,” commented Hillje. There will be stronger conflicts, especially with the FDP, which will be pushed forward by the SPD.
Revolution at SPD party conference after Brandenburg election ‘unlikely’
“Depending on the outcome of the election, Scholz can get some air or there will be massive criticism of him or even calls for an alternative candidate for the federal election,” said Hillje. However, he does not believe that Scholz’s candidacy for chancellor is in serious danger. “There are only two options. First: Scholz resigns, like Biden in the USA. I think that is very unlikely. He has no health problems and is confident in himself.”
Another possibility would be a revolution at the party conference. “For that to happen, an opposing candidate would have to have sought a majority beforehand. But I don’t see that there will be a dismantling of the party’s own chancellor. There are individual voices who think Boris Pistorius is the better candidate, but many also know what they owe to Scholz after 16 years without an SPD chancellor.”
Expert: CDU well prepared for election campaign
Hillje believes early elections are unlikely in principle. “The Greens and SPD don’t want that, they aren’t ready for the election campaign yet. I’m not sure about the FDP, though.” The CDU, on the other hand, seems to be well prepared. “I have to say that Carsten Linnemann has made the party headquarters ready for the election campaign,” said Hillje about the CDU general secretary.
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