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Uruguay holds elections on Sunday, October 26 to elect a new president at a time when it is a model of political and economic stability in Latin America. Uruguay’s 3.4 million people may disagree on key issues, but civility and a strong focus on politics, rather than personal attacks, make Uruguayan elections contrast with those of other countries. countries, particularly those of the United States.
Due to constitutional term limits, the current president, Luis Lacalle Pou, 51, cannot run for a second consecutive term.
But the result will determine whether his conservative coalition retains control of the presidency or whether a moderate left political alliancewhich legalized marijuana and boosted green energy production when it last governed from 2005 to 2020, is returning to power.
An opposition victory would likely put a potential trade deal with China on hold. Your candidate, Yamandu Orsi, He has said that he prefers to negotiate with Beijing through Mercosur, an alliance of South American countries.
Whoever wins will have to confront the challenges posed by an aging population, widespread child poverty and concerns about violent crime, as drug gangs have made inroads in what has traditionally been one of the most vulnerable countries. Pacific of South America.
If no candidate receives a majority of the votes, a runoff between the top two will be held on November 24.
The ruling party’s candidate is Alvaro Delgado, 55 years old, who has worked as a rural veterinarian, deputy and chief of staff of Lacalle Pou. Both belong to the center-right National Party, which is part of the ruling Republican Coalition. Delgado’s victory would guarantee the continuation of an economic program focused on achieving trade agreements and streamlining government regulations.
His main rival, Orsi, is a former high school history teacher and two-time mayor of Canelones, a sprawling district of coastal towns, cattle ranches and outlying suburbs of the country’s capital, Montevideo.
Orsi, 57, was born in Canelones to a working-class home without electricity. For 30 years he has been rising through the ranks of the Frente Amplio, a progressive left-wing political coalition made up of communists, trade unionists, democratic socialists and former left-wing guerrillas, including Jose Mujica.
The support of Mujica, a folksy and fatherly figure, who was president from 2010 to 2015, helped Orsi win the coalition candidacy.
Among the applicants with remote possibilities is Andrés Ojeda, 40 years old, lawyer, member of the conservative Colorado Party who has tried to attract younger voters.
What are the topics up for debate?
Uruguayan elections tend to be held around a middle ground, with parties from across the political spectrum broadly agreeing on many issues. All of the leading candidates insist on maintaining Uruguay’s business-friendly policies—including lower corporate taxes than its neighbors—which have helped the economy grow. They also support preserving the country’s relatively generous Social Security system which, among other things, provides free health care to the poor.
In an interview, Orsi said that the strength of Uruguay’s political parties and the solidity of the welfare state left little room for the type of populist movements that have prevailed in other countries.
Orsi said he and Delgado have had regular conversations. “Here we all know each other”he said, adding that, if he won, he would not seek “destroy everything and start from scratch.”
But he criticized the ruling party’s record on crime and said urgent action was needed to repel drug gangs, fight money laundering and “prevent the State from losing control of prisons.” He has promised to hire 2,000 new police officers.
The homicide rate in Uruguay has skyrocketed in recent years, with a third of the population citing insecurity as the main concern, followed by unemployment, drug trafficking and poverty. Orsi has said he plans to create more jobs for young people and raise wages for low-income workers to help tackle the child poverty rate, which stands at 25 percent.
Delgado has also promised to support disadvantaged children through a $200 million spending package. His campaign team did not respond to an interview request.
But he has placed more emphasis on improving economic growth, finalizing the trade deal with China and carrying out “bureaucratic decontamination” by laying off 15,000 public employees and replacing their roles with online services.
Who has a chance of winning?
Orsi has consistently led polls by a comfortable margin, but many analysts continue to believe he may not have enough support to avoid a runoff against Delgado.
Ojeda could play an important role in a runoff election because he and candidates from smaller conservative parties are expected to back Delgado, a ticket that helped Lacalle Pou win in 2019.
But analysts say Orsi — who has received praise from voters for being down-to-earth and has benefited from Mujica’s support — has emerged as the candidate most likely to become the next president.
When will we know the results?
The polls open at 8 am and close at 7:30 pm The results will be known after a few hours. The results will be published on the website of the Uruguayan electoral authority.
For the Uruguayan expert in public opinion, Mariana Pomiés, the presidential candidate Yamandu Orsi, from the opposition Frente Amplio (FA), will be the most voted in the elections on October 27 in Uruguay, although without the majority to avoid a second round against the ruling party Alvaro Delgado, of the National Party (PN), scheduled for next November 24.
“Although the FA continues to have a high level of voting to be able to win in the first round, it would have to capture more than half of today’s undecided voters, which is difficult,” said Pomiés.
The director of the public opinion consultancy Cifra considered that for this reason, “it is most likely that there will be a second round” on November 24 to elect the successor of President Luis Lacalle Pou (2020-2025) of the PN. In his opinion, in the eventual runoff, the candidate from the FA, a left-wing coalition that governed between 2005 and 2020, would face each other and the candidate with the most votes from the Republican Coalition, made up of four center and center-right parties that compete separately in the first round. return, but that a month later they would join forces as they did in 2019 to bring Lacalle Pou to the Presidency.
According to the latest Cifra survey, released on September 27, Orsi (FA) had a voting intention among voters of 44 percent, Delgado (PN) of 24 percent, Ojeda (PC) of 14 percent and others parties of 5 percent, while the undecided and blank votes would have 13 percent, in line with other surveys.
Nobody doubted the second place of Delgado (55 years old) behind Orsi (57 years old), but in recent weeks there has been a decrease in the intention to vote for the PN, captured by the candidate Andrés Ojeda (40), of the Party Colorado (PC), main partner of the PN in the Republican Coalition.
For Pomiés “there is no doubt that the FA is going to be the party with the most votes” and Delgado, who presents himself as the continuity of the Government, would be second, “even shortening the difference” with Ojeda, who claims to be the “new politician ” and the “change” within the ruling party.
“It could happen that Ojeda catches up with him, but I think Delgado’s advantage is confidence in the structure of the PN, which “inside is very well-oiled, while the structure of the PC is much smaller.”
The expert considered that Ojeda, who generated controversy with an advertisement in which he exhibited his muscles in a gym, capturing the attention of a sector of the population less interested in politics, “achieved a very high level of knowledge of public opinion and acceptance”.
“He has had a good campaign strategy to achieve that visibility in such a short time and in the volume that he achieved it,” he said about the candidate of the historic PC, which governed Uruguay for decades, the last time between 2000 and 2005.
Although almost half of the Uruguayan population approves of Lacalle Pou’s management, highlighted for his handling of the pandemic, drought and inflation, he has not managed to transfer that popularity to Delgado, who served as Secretary of the Presidency at the present time. mandate.
“The merits of this Government have been greatly concentrated in the figure of the president,” said Pomiés, a sociology graduate.
“His image and popularity is good, and it has made it difficult for other members of the Government or other potential leaders to build their leadership,” he interpreted.
In the opinion of the interviewee, “the lack of will to change is what most inclines us, several analysts, to think that it is difficult for the coalition not to end up winning in the end, just as it happened five years ago and just as it happened with the LUC (Law of Urgent Consideration of the Government ratified in a referendum)”.
“When one studies the perceptions one finds that the FA is not perceived as an option for a very radical change either”said Pomies.
“The FA itself has been in charge of communicating that there are nuances, different visions, but that they are not great changes of direction that the Government would give,” he observed.
The public opinion specialist stated that in fact, “the current Government has not given a great change of direction regarding some aspects of the three FA governments.”
“There have been some changes, but the model has been the same. The tax structure was not touched, the State was almost not touched, that is, the big things did not move, they came from 15 years of the FA Government and they came from 40 years of PN and PC governments,” summarized the director of Cifra.
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