Many US election polls are based on data that is less independent than it seems. Experts explain how to recognize good surveys.
Washington DC – Just a few weeks away US election Polls say a very close race between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Joe Biden’s Republican predecessor Donald Trump in advance. What makes things even more difficult: According to US experts, many of these surveys reach a target group that could distort the results.
This is also explained by the two survey experts John Anzalone and Greg Strimple, who have already collected data for forecasts on behalf of Democratic and Republican candidates during previous elections. In a current podcast from the US newspaper Politico The two explain what makes predicting the election result so difficult.
Inaccurate methods in surveys for the 2024 US election – This means that groups of voters are left out
In the surveys that are currently published almost daily, it is difficult for laypeople to even recognize their reliability – since the quality of surveys basically depends on who the makers of the survey include. For years, there has been repeated criticism that many surveys primarily reach white people, while people from Hispanic or PoC communities are left out.
On the other hand, Strimple explains, it is similarly difficult to represent “hard-core” Trump voters through online surveys, such as those commissioned by many established media companies, since the target group is generally better reached through telephone surveys. It could therefore be that Trump has significantly stronger support among the electorate than many surveys suggested.
Experts criticize election polls in the USA and confirm: It will be close between Trump and Harris
They generally recommend looking into how the various survey institutes work and finding out which providers use reputable methodology. In the podcast interview, Anzalone advises sticking to surveys that use multiple models. He cites the Wall Street Journal, NBC, CBS and the Washington Post as examples of this. Other surveys, such as those from CNN or Fox News sometimes worked with imprecise methods and thus produced less than reliable results, which also created the feeling that a party might be in a better or worse position than the data itself suggests.
Where both experts agree is on the belief that the poll results actually favor a close race and a divided electorate speak. This also reflects the fact that there have been few swings in the trend for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in recent weeks, as was the case much more in previous elections. However, according to Strimple, another development is noteworthy: that in surveys based on the expected outcome of the election, more people expect a President Kamala Harris than a new term for Donald Trump. And that could make a big difference politically, including in upcoming congressional elections. (saka)
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