Political electoral polls today 27 October 2021: PD on the rise, Meloni and Salvini drop
POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY – In clear growth after the municipal Democratic Party, Lega and Fratelli d’Italia are losing ground. This is the picture that emerges from the latest survey carried out by Swg for Tg La7 of 25 October 2021. A figure to be understood as a reflection and consequence of the recent administrative elections, which saw the clear triumph of the center-left and the debacle of the right.
The golden period therefore continues for the Democratic Party led by Enrico Letta, as well as for Action, the political creature of Carlo Calenda, now firmly above the threshold. Some signs of recovery by the Five Star Movement. In detail, Fratelli d’Italia would remain the first party in the country with 20.7%, down by 0.4%. The Democratic Party follows one point behind (19.7% of preferences), with a leap forward of half a percentage point.
On the lowest step of the podium we find the League at 19.2% (-0.2%). The M5s recovers two decimals, attesting to 16.6% of the sample preferences. Forza Italia detached at 6.8% (-0.2%). Stock gains 0.2% and rises to 4.1%. The other parties are below the threshold, such as Renzi’s Italia Viva, which does not exceed 2%.
HOW THE POLLS ARE DONE
The electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling societies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analyzed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the Italian population of age, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls.
This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that is the greatest difficulty for pollsters. Interviews for political electoral polls are usually conducted with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
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