Political electoral polls today 29 June 2021
POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY – It had been in the air for some time, but now the overtaking has materialized: as reported by the survey carried out by SWG for La7, Fratelli d’Italia has jumped to the top of the consensus of the Italians. Giorgia Meloni can therefore celebrate: after constant growth, which has been going on for over a year, hers is today the first party in Italy.
This is a significant moment, because the League loses its primacy for the first time in a very long time, giving it to the center-right allied party: a scenario that could significantly change the balance in the coalition, overturning the current balance of forces and seriously questioning the leadership of Matteo Salvini.
In the last week, Fratelli d’Italia gained 0.2 per cent, reaching 20.7 per cent, 0.4 more than the Lega, which fell by 0.3 per cent.
The Democratic Party gains two decimal places and rises to 18.8 percent, while the feud between Grillo and Conte does not seem to harm the Five Star Movement, which rises by 0.6 percentage points and stands at 16.6 percent.
How are surveys done?
The electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling societies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analyzed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the Italian population of age, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls.
This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that is the greatest difficulty for pollsters. Interviews for political electoral polls are usually conducted with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
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