POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY 17 AUGUST 2021
POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY – Does Calabria remain in the hands of the center-right? According to the latest polls, it would seem so. The unitary candidate, Roberto Occhiuto, according to the EMG survey, would have an advantage of about 20 percentage points over the main opponent, the center-left candidate and M5s, the scientist Amalia Bruni.
In detail, the Cosentino candidate supported by the center-right would have a liking between 45 and 49% of Calabrians. For the neuroscientist, on the other hand, a gap between 24 and 28% of voters is expected. It does not seem to break through the De Magistris card. The mayor of Naples, already in Calabria as a magistrate, would reach between 16 and 20% of the preferences.
Even according to the Swg poll, the battle for the presidency of Calabria will essentially be a two-way fight. In this case too, the group leader in the Forza Italia Chamber would stand out. Occhiuto would have 16 points of advantage (46%), against 30% recorded by Amalia Bruni. Also in this case De Magistris would play the part of the third wheel with 23% of the favor of the Calabrians.
Finally, it should be noted that only one institute, Winpool, currently gives a totally opposite picture. According to this survey, in fact, the center-left candidate would get 36.3% of the preferences, and would be half a percentage point ahead in a thrilling head-to-head with Occhiuto. Regional elections in Calabria are scheduled for next 3 and 4 October. After a muted departure from the election campaign, it will be a hot month and a half.
How surveys are done
The electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling societies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analyzed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the Italian population of age, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls.
This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that is the greatest difficulty for pollsters. Interviews for political electoral polls are usually conducted with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
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