If the election in the province of Buenos Aires is the mother of all the battles of the crack, the bid in the Town is his eldest daughter: one of the central inmates of Together for Change and how that dispute is directed will depend on what happens in other districts. Clarion accessed this week to four new polls that measure the Buenos Aires stage for the STEP 2021, focused on the duel between Maria Eugenia Vidal Y Patricia bullrich. And more.
The studies are from the consulting firms Cleavages, Giacobbe & Asociados, Projection and Trends. They evaluated the image of the main leaders in CABA, intention to vote by space and by candidate. In the latter case, at a general level but also for eventual inmates.
Regarding the results, two primary conclusions: Together for Change appears with a wide advantage, but the panorama in numbers is much more diffuse when proper names are made.
For cleavages, above Vidal
It is a consulting firm that is gaining space in politics, more linked to the K world, and that has just presented its latest survey. It was a survey of 1,098 cases in the two Buenos Aires, between June 23 and 28.
Regarding the Buenos Aires electoral scenario (425 cases of the total), first it presents the results by space. And although Together for Change appears clearly at the top, it does so with a smaller gap than the one it achieved in 2019 and with good numbers for the Frente de Todos: 41.3% vs. 29.1%.
With almost 22 undecided points, they complete: Left Fronts 3.1%, Federal Consensus (non-K Peronism) 2.3% and Liberal Fronts 2.3%. Regarding other polls, the low voting intention of the Liberals is striking.
“Which of the possible candidates of Juntos por el Cambio would you support in the PASO de CABA?” Cleavages and gets into the sexiest fight in the district. And there, Vidal takes almost five points to Bullrich: 27.2% against 22.5%.
Health ministers appear more relegated Fernan Quirós (9.7%) and Education Soledad Acuña (7.4%). They were two of the variants that were considered, in case Vidal did not want to comply with the request of the head of Government Horacio Rodríguez Larreta to face Bullrich.
It is the moderate fight (Larreta / Vidal / Quirós / Acuña) vs. hard (Bullrich / Mauricio Macri) which has been maintaining high voltage in the PRO. The idea is to arrive at a list of unity: the larretismo proposes Vidal first and Bullrich third (the second must be a man), but the former minister resists and asks to lead her.
Cleavages also measures an eventual STEP in the Frente de Todos, with this result: Leandro Santoro 33.9%, Daniel Filmus 17.4%, Carla Vizzotti 10.3% and Vilma Ibarra 7.2%. In all cases, the percentages are completed with the variants “none” and “don’t know / no answer”.
For Giacobbe, up Bullrich
Jorge Giacobbe is one of the consultants with the greatest presence in the media. And it has been broadcasting surveys of national or provincial scope almost fortnightly. This week, in his last submission, he sent a report with data from the City.
It was a survey of 1,500 cases and where it evaluated images and the electoral scene. In both cases, Patricia Bullrich appears well positioned.
As for the pictures, the former minister is even more positive than Larreta (44.1% against 43.5%), although the head of government combines it with a lower negative (- 32.3% against – 44.1%). Vidal, meanwhile, finished third, with + 36.8% and -43.6%.
Later, Giacobbe chain three questions facing the elections, by space.
– What is your position regarding the next legislative elections of 2021 in CABA? “I want the Frente de Todos (National Government) to EARN 33.2%, “I want the Frente de Todos (National Government) to LOSE” 54.9%, “I don’t care” 9.9% and “Ns / nc” 2%.
– What is your position regarding the next legislative elections of 2021 in CABA? “I want Together for Change to EARN 47.6%, “I want Together for Change to LOSE” 38.1%, “I don’t care” 13.2% and “Ns / nc” 1.2%.
– This year there will be elections for deputies in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires. In which of these interns (STEP) are you going to participate? “In the intern of Together for Change” 38%, “In the intern of the Frente de Todos” 25.6%, “In the intern of the Liberals” 5.4%, “In the intern of the Left” 2, 1%, “In none of them” 13.5%, “I have not decided yet” 15%, “Ns / nc” 0.5%.
And at the end it addresses the internal bid of the PRO. “PASO elections in CABA / If these were the candidates on the board of Juntos por el Cambio. Which of them would you vote for?” Bullrich takes almost 10 points from Vidal (33.6% against 23.7%) and they complete “I am not yet decided” (34.5%) and “Ns / nc” (8.3%).
For Projection, they are tied
It is one of the newest consulting firms in the world of politics. Measured for the last elections and the team that makes up this firm He also works for the University of La Matanza, which depends on the national government.
This particular study –618 cases in CABA– They were commissioned by an unknown legislator (Juan Pablo Chiesa), as specified in the signature to this newspaper.
Clarín advanced some results of this survey, with key data on the Macri – Larreta bid. The Head of Government wins in image and transfer of votes (I support a candidate driven by him), but lose in leadership with the former president.
“Which of the following options would you choose in the next elections?” Inquired the consultant, with this result:
1) Together for Change – A candidate supported by Larreta: 27.6%.
2) Together for Change – A candidate supported by Macri: 17.5%.
3) Frente de Todos – A candidate supported by Alberto Fernández: 15.8%.
4) Frente de Todos – A candidate supported by Cristina: 14.9%.
5) Libertarian Front – A candidate supported by José Luis Espert: 3.6%.
6) Federal Consensus – One candidate supported by Roberto Lavagna: 3.4%.
7) Left Front – A candidate supported by Nicolás del Caño: 2%.
– I don’t know: 15.1%.
In the sum total per space, Together for Change, he scores about 15 points in Front of All in CABA. A very wide advantage, but (again) below that obtained by Larreta and Macri over Matías Lammens and the Fernández in the last election.
Later, Projection raises two scenarios: one with Vidal leading in Juntos por el Cambio (with Lammens as K rival) and the other with Bullrich in front (and Santoro as the main contender).
The two Macrista leaders get almost the same percentage, around 39, although Vidal remains with a greater gap over the Frente de Todos, because Lammens appears with less electoral potential than Santoro.
For Trends, there is also a tie
The fourth Buenos Aires study that he accessed Clarion It is Trends, a firm that was born in 2017 and tends to bring its studies closer to leftist sectors, such as the FIT. It also maintains links with the Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires Legislatures. At the end of June he did a survey of 2,064 cases.
In the heading imagesOn the one hand, Larreta appears much more positive than Alberto Fernández and Macri (54.1% against 29.9% and 27.9%); and on the other, Vidal leads among the candidates (+ 47.5% against + 42.7% for Bullrich, + 25.9% for Santoro and + 13.7% for Myriam Bregman).
Regarding the intention to vote, he asks directly how an intern between Vidal and Bullrich would come out, and there is a statistical tie: 50.8% for the former governor against 49.2% for the former minister.
It also raises a scenario per space / candidate, although he only measures Vidal as a macro variant. Y He is doing very well: 49% against a meager 22.6% from Santoro / Frente de Todos.
Third and with interesting 6.1 points remains Bregman, of the FIT. As in the case of Cleavages, those who appear relegated to the liberals: Javier Milei appears fourth with 4.4%.