Barring disaster, Kamala Harris will win California on November 5. Democratic candidates have won here uninterruptedly since 1992 in the presidential election, giving them 54 Electoral College votes, the largest haul at stake. Less than a month before the elections, Harris maintains a comfortable 22-point lead over her rival, Donald Trump (57% to 35%). The survey revealed this Thursday by the University of Berkeley and Los Angeles Times shows a worrying fact. The vice president is losing ground among Latino voters in the state, where 26.9 million Californians are called to participate.
“Harris registers the almost universal support of Democrats, liberals, of those who define themselves in favor of women deciding about their bodies in abortion and within progressive sectors,” says Mark DiCamillo, the director of the demoscopic area. who conducted the survey of 3,000 potential voters of the State. Trump, on the other hand, has the support of conservatives, evangelical Christians and libertarians, many of whom inherited the departure of Robert F. Kennedy from the race. DiCamillo also highlights the great divide between the candidates and the gender of the electorate. Harris leads Trump by 33% among women. Their advantage, however, is reduced among men to 12%.
The Democratic candidate, who began her political career as a district attorney in San Francisco, finds a lot of support among minorities in California. African Americans, 5% of the state’s population, overwhelmingly support it (72%). Asian voters follow with 66%. Latinos are the least likely (54%), a number even lower than the potential white voters who will check Harris’ box in November, 56%. There are 7% of Hispanics who had not decided their vote when the online survey was conducted at the end of September.
Analysts believe Trump is on track to record his best showing as a candidate among Hispanics. In the Berkeley survey and Los Angeles Timesthe Republican candidate has a voting intention of 35%. The figure is considerably higher compared to the 23% of Latinos who voted for him in California in the 2020 presidential elections. Joe Biden then won the State with 63.5% of the votes. At the same time, the current president had lost some support among Hispanics, compared to what Hillary Clinton achieved in 2016.
The sentiments of undecided voters may shed some clues about the downward trend in Latino support for Harris. 37% of these believe that with Trump the economy will perform better, compared to 16% who believe this with Harris. The impact on the pocketbook, including the very high price of housing and the inflationary pressure experienced during the Biden Administration, continues to be the main concern on the minds of voters. 29% consider that the former president has the necessary toughness that the position demands (only 10% perceive this in Harris). Almost 3 in 10 also think that US foreign policy will be better with a Trumpist White House (15% for Harris).
Experts consider that the lack of results of the Biden Government with Hispanics, a key sector in the electorate, has also undermined enthusiasm with the current Democratic candidate. Especially among the profiles of progressive Latinos in California, more to the left of the party than in the rest of the country. Analysts do not rule out that this same feeling is being experienced in Nevada and Arizona, states that, unlike California, are at stake and are decisive towards November 5. Kamala Harris holds an event this Thursday in Las Vegas to answer questions from Latino voters organized by the Univision network.
Latinos are drastically underrepresented politically in California. They are 40% of the State’s population, but they only make up 26% of the state electorate, according to the State Public Policy Institute. Whites, on the other hand, are overrepresented, as they make up half of the electorate, despite being 38% of the state’s voting-age population. The organization points out that Asian Americans and African Americans are well weighted among potential voters. The former are 16% of the population and 15% of the registry, while blacks are 5% in both areas.
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