According to polls, Harris still has enough electoral votes to win the US election in November. Trump is catching up despite the wrong campaign issues.
Washington DC – US Vice President Kamala Harris is coming under pressure in the US election campaign. Since mid-September, she has been far behind former President Donald Trump In the weighted survey mean of the New York Times Trump gets 49 percent, Harris gets 47 percent of the vote. One poll suggests that Harris, compared to US presidents, Joe Bidenis losing support from an important group of voters.
Swing State Arizona: Harris loses support in important voting group ahead of US election
According to a survey conducted by Siena College on behalf of New York Times In mid-September, 49 percent of Hispanic Americans surveyed in Arizona supported Harris and 41 percent supported Trump. According to the US think tank Americas Society, 63 percent of these voters voted for Joe Biden in 2020. According to the survey, Trump is five percentage points ahead of Harris in Arizona. Other polls see a smaller gap between Harris and Trump.
Partly very conservative group turns away from Harris – historian declares “Latinos for Trump” in US election
Historian Geraldo Cadava explained in the magazine why Hispanics supported a presidential candidate in the 2024 US election whose migration policy consists of a wall with Mexico and children in cages. New Yorkers. Cadava explained that Hispanics are sometimes very conservative and have therefore been an important target of Republican campaigns since the election of President Richard Nixon. Cadava researches the history of Republican Hispanics at Northwestern University.
Citing leaders of groups such as Latinos for Trump, he explained that some of them have already distanced themselves from the Democrats because they treated them as a minority. In states like Florida, where many Cubans live who fled the state socialist dictatorship, Trump’s extreme economic liberalism would also find a receptive audience.
Before US election: Trump scores points with Hispanic Americans with economic and foreign policy
According to a survey by the think tank Pew Research Center In July, around 48 percent of Hispanic Americans surveyed believed that the Democrats were interested in their concerns. For the Republican Party, the figure was only 40 percent. Nevertheless, Trump’s economic and foreign policy were supported by the majority. There was a narrow majority for Biden’s clear commitment to the right to abortion. A topic on which Trump’s vice presidential candidate JD Vance regularly attracts attention with misogynistic statements.
Most important issues in the US election: economy, health and the rule of law
According to a PewAccording to a survey from early September, the three most important issues for voting decisions are currently economic and health policy and the appointments to the Supreme Court. In short: US citizens are mainly interested in their personal well-being and the preservation of their constitutional state. Issues such as foreign and immigration policy are particularly important to Republican voters. Democrats are particularly concerned with the right to abortion.
If Harris loses another swing state, she will lose the Electoral College majority to Trump
However, the US election campaign, which is tailored to two people, will ultimately not be decided by a simple majority, but by the majority in the Electoral College. NYT estimates that Harris and Trump each have 226 and 219 of the 270 votes needed for a majority.
With the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, where Harris is narrowly leading the polls, the current vice president would receive 276 votes. If she loses Wisconsin or Pennsylvania to Trump, the former president would win the election. Arizona would go to Trump in both scenarios. (kb)
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