POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY 12 AUGUST 2021
POLITICAL ELECTORAL POLLS TODAY – Confidence in the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella has reached its peak since he took office in 2015. This is stated in a survey carried out by Demos & Pi for La Repubblica, according to which 68% of the sample interviewed declared that they had “a great deal or a lot” trust in the Italian head of state. The figure is up by two percentage points compared to the survey carried out in May and by 10 points compared to 58% last December, before the inauguration of the government led by Mario Draghi.
According to the survey, conducted between 12 and 14 July on a sample of 1,010 respondents with a margin of error of 3.1%, the voters of the Democratic Party show greater enthusiasm for Mattarella. 92% of the respondents who intend to vote for the main center-left party expressed “very much or a lot” of trust in the President of the Republic. This is followed by 65% of the voters of the 5 Star Movement, 62% of those of Forza Italia, 56% for the Lega and 54% for Fratelli d’Italia, currently the first party in the polls.
How surveys are done
The electoral and political polls are carried out by opinion polling societies respecting very specific scientific criteria. The authors of the surveys must identify a sample to be interviewed that is sufficiently large and representative of the population to be analyzed. In the case of polls on voting intentions for parties or the confidence index of political leaders, therefore, the interviewees must adequately represent the Italian population of age, those who have the right to vote and who go to the polls.
This work is done to minimize the margin of error and make the detection as reliable as possible. Usually a political-electoral poll is considered reliable if the indicated margin of error is 3 percent with a 95 percent confidence interval. It is precisely that of identifying a representative sample of the population that is the greatest difficulty for pollsters. Interviews for political electoral polls are usually conducted with a Cati methodology, by telephone, or Cawi, via the Internet, or mixed. To carry out the interviews, opinion polling companies rely on specialized companies.
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