According to the ARD “Deutschlandtrend”, the SPD is clearly at the top less than a month before the 2021 federal election. Baerbock and Laschet clearly fall behind Scholz.
Update from Thursday, September 2nd, 2021, 6.45 p.m .: The SPD is still flying high. Since the beginning of August, the Social Democrats and their candidate for Chancellor Olaf Scholz have been able to gain seven points in the ARD “Deutschlandtrend” to 25 percent and are thus clearly in the lead less than a month before the general election. The CDU, on the other hand, has had to surrender seven percent since the beginning of August and is now only 20 percent and thus a significant five percentage points behind the SPD.
In the same period, the Greens lost three percentage points and are now only 16 percent, the FDP, on the other hand, was able to gain one percentage point and is now only three percentage points behind the party around Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock with 13 percent. Thus, the Greens now only have a small cushion on fourth place, whereas they are almost two-digit behind the re-strengthened SPD. Last month, the AfD increased two percentage points to 12 percent, while the Left Party would move into the Bundestag with an unchanged six percent.
Olaf Scholz is growing in popularity, Baerbock and Laschet behind Habeck and Spahn
On the chancellor question, red is even more clearly ahead of black and green. 43 percent of those surveyed would like Olaf Scholz as chancellor, only 16 and 12 percent respectively want to see Armin Laschet or Annalena Baerbock in the Chancellery. Olaf Scholz has also made a significant leap in the ranking of the most popular political professionals. 56 percent stated that they were “very satisfied” or at least “satisfied” with the work of the finance minister, only Angela Merkel (64 percent) had an even higher approval rating. Just behind Scholz is Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder with 54 percent.
Only 20 percent of North Rhine-Westphalia’s Prime Minister Armin Laschet said they were “very satisfied” or “satisfied” with his work. Green leader Annalena Baerbock came up with 25 percent on this question – and thus twelve percent less than Health Minister Jens Spahn, who with 37 percent is also well ahead of the candidate for chancellor of their own party. Green co-boss Robert Habeck (36 percent) and FDP boss Lindner (32 percent) are also well ahead of Laschet and Baerbock. Left top candidate Dietmar Bartsch (16 percent) has a comparatively low approval rate, but is still ahead of AfD top candidate and parliamentary group leader Alice Weidel, who only receives 13 percent approval.
Survey on the federal election: Suddenly it’s enough for red-green-red
First report from Thursday, September 2nd, 2021, 2:26 p.m .: Berlin – For Olaf Scholz* it’s getting better and better at Armin Laschet* On the other hand, the worry lines are likely to grow. In a new survey, the SPD* keep going, the Union is losing ground more and more. Even a left alliance after the Bundestag election 2021* would – as of now – be possible.
In the latest poll by the Kantar opinion research institute, the Social Democrats come to 25 percent, compared to the previous week that is two percent more. CDU/CSU* In the survey, which was carried out on behalf of the news magazine Focus, lose two percentage points and come to only 21 percent.
Survey on the federal election 2021: Red-red-green alliance of SPD, Greens and Left possible
the Greens*, which are still the third strongest force in Germany, are slightly on the upswing. You gain one percentage point and are 19 percent. FDP* (minus one percentage point) and AfD* (unchanged) are, according to Kantar, tied with eleven percent each, followed by the Left Party* with seven percent (unchanged).
For possible coalitions, the results of the survey say: A red-red-green coalition is theoretically possible. The SPD, the Greens and the Left come together to 51 percent – the left alliance would have an absolute majority in the Bundestag.
In addition to red-red-green, a traffic light coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP would be possible. The three parties come to 54 percent in the Kantar survey. A German coalition of the Union, SPD and FDP (57 percent) and a Jamaica alliance of the Union, Greens and FDP (51 percent) could also come about.
Survey on the 2021 federal election: Olaf Scholz has many options, Armin Laschet only one
If voters were to vote in the polls next Sunday, Olaf Scholz would have significantly more options than Armin Laschet. With a red-red-green alliance, a traffic light or a Germany coalition, the former Lord Mayor of Hamburg would be Federal Chancellor. NRW Prime Minister Armin Laschet could only become the new head of government with Jamaica. Annalena Baerbock* would not have a chance at the Chancellery in any of the scenarios.
A black-green (40 percent) and a black-yellow coalition (32 percent) would not be possible. A few months ago, an alliance of the Union and the Greens was still considered the most likely option in the federal government, but the fall of the Christian Democrats makes the coalition, which also exists at the state level in Baden-Württemberg, impossible. A two-party alliance between the SPD and the Greens (44 percent), on the other hand, no longer seems completely out of reach. Should one of the two parties still gain, red-green would be achievable.
Election surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a prognosis for the outcome of the election. You are also always fraught with uncertainties. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes, which are numerous in Germany, to weight the data collected. (tvd) * fr.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.