In the circumstances that have developed between Russia and NATO, a situation is possible when, due to a compromise, everyone can say that he has won, says Konstantin Kalachev, head of the Political Expert Group. In a conversation with Lenta.ru, he listed possible options for resolving the crisis around Ukraine.
The path of “Finlandization”
“Russia wants to achieve, from my point of view, what the Ambassador of Ukraine said [в Лондоне Вадим Пристайко]. He said that under certain conditions Ukraine might be ready to abandon the idea of joining NATO, that circumstances might arise in such a way that Ukraine would prefer the path of “Finlandization”. Despite the fact that Finland lost the winter war to the USSR and lost part of its territory, in the future, relations between the two states were friendly and mutually beneficial. Finland recognized the prevailing post-war realities in order not to lose even more, ”the political scientist said.
It would be enough if the Ukrainian leadership announced the option of a neutral Ukraine outside the blocs, Kalachev believes. But since its constitution reflects NATO aspirations, this would require changes to the country’s fundamental law.
This is where everyone gets theirs. The collective West breathed a sigh of relief, first of all, Germany, which receives Russian gas, the US President says that he stopped the war in Europe, [президент России Владимир] Putin achieved non-expansion of NATO at the expense of Ukraine
Konstantin KalachevHead of the Political Expert Group
Ukraine, which wants to become a European country, can become one without being a member of NATO, as, for example, Ireland or Sweden, Kalachev believes. “First, you need to become Europeans in your heads, Europe does not begin with statements about the European choice – real Europe begins with real reforms that allow you to change the country for the better and take it from the position of the poorest country in Europe,” the political scientist noted.
Rumors of an “invasion”
The Russian authorities did not expect an “invasion” of Ukraine, Kalachev stressed. He believes that the United States provokes in every possible way, but Russia never acts under dictation.
The Russian “invasion” hysteria is the shortest path to peace because our leadership is not acting on US orders. If Biden already indicates February 16 as the date of the invasion, or let’s say Bloomberg writes that it is scheduled for February 15, then it is absolutely obvious that there will be no invasion on either 15 or 16
Konstantin KalachevHead of the Political Expert Group
How can bridges burn
If there are no serious advances from the position of Ukraine regarding the Minsk agreements, the special status of Donbass or the abandonment of plans to join NATO, the last argument may be launched, the political scientist believes, namely, the recognition by Russia of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) .
“If in fact the bridges are destined to burn down, then they will burn down in this way, but this is already the point of no return. We have examples of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, but it seems to me that in this case, we may have to go further, up to holding a referendum on the entry of independent republics recognized by Russia into the Russian Federation, ”Kalachev shared.
However, even Russia’s recognition of the DPR and LPR will not mean the beginning of a war, the political scientist believes. In his opinion, in this case, Ukraine will want to resolve the issue by force, as Azerbaijan resolved the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. But she will not be ready for this, as the forces are unequal. This only threatens Russia with tougher sanctions, which can lead to problems in the economy.
Relations can be spoiled once and for all, but, I think, for the Russian leadership, the federalization of Ukraine, the special status of Donbass, neutral Ukraine, the Minsk agreements are preferable. As a matter of fact, what Ukraine has been pushed to do all these years, but it doesn’t work, so we have to raise the stakes
Konstantin KalachevHead of the Political Expert Group
Zugzwang
So far, no one can retreat from their interests, and the Americans are trying to drive Russia into a situation of zugzwang, when every move of a player worsens his position, the political scientist believes.
“The problem is that Russia has a greater margin of safety than Ukraine. And in the current situation, I think it should be obvious to the Ukrainian leadership that certain concessions must be made if there is a desire to save their own economy. Yes, Europe can allocate additional funds to the Ukrainian economy, but it can drive the situation into such an abyss that in the end we will suffer, but Ukraine can suffer much more,” Kalachev concluded.
Earlier, Dmitry Polyansky, First Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, called the threats of an “invasion” of Ukraine “very ridiculous and strange,” and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called February 15 the day Western propaganda for war failed.
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