PNV and EH Bildu dispute the hegemony of nationalism at the polls

The Basque regional elections, scheduled for April, between the Galician regional elections in February and the European elections in June, are marked by the battle for hegemony of the Basque nationalist camp between the PNV and EH Bildu. The expectation of this unprecedented dispute is an immediate consequence of the municipal and regional elections last May, as well as the general elections in July in which the nationalist left was, for the first time, practically tied with traditional nationalism. However, expectations of a change in the political cycle, understood as a change of government, are practically discarded to the extent that the PSE, the third party, which will foreseeably hold the key to the government, has already announced that it will not facilitate the Executive to EH- Bildu, but to the PNV. Likewise, the electoral rivalry between the two Basque nationalist partners of the Sánchez Government will not affect the stability of the central Executive either.

The poor result of the PNV in the spring and summer elections – municipal, provincial and general -, in which for the first time in its history it was overtaken by the nationalist left, caused an internal commotion whose consequence has been the replacement of Iñigo Urkullu , lehendakari during the last three terms, by Imanol Pradales as a candidate for the next Basque elections. With this movement, the PNV has precipitated a generational change to avoid the change of political cycle proclaimed by its rival in the nationalist camp, EH Bildu. With Pradales, a young professional well connected to the business and academic world and with strong Peneuvist roots, the PNV tries to offer a modern image and thereby aims to stop the erosion of its Government, questioned by the rapid deterioration of Basque public services. , especially due to the previously prestigious public health, after the Covid epidemic, and the tensions with the ELA-STV union, as well as its loss of influence in the young vote.

This movement has conditioned that of EH Bildu, produced immediately afterwards. For the next Basque elections, EH Bildu had planned a candidate for transitional lehendakari, such as Laura Mintegi and Maialen Iriarte, while Arnaldo Otegi, whose resignation from the candidacy was expected, continued for two more years as general coordinator of the Abertzale coalition. But the generational change of the PNV has pushed EH Bildu to launch, ahead of schedule, Pello Otxandiano, its young promise—an engineer specialized in public policies, with strong nationalist roots and incorporated into the coalition after the end of terrorism—, designed to compete with expectations of victory, in their calculations, for 2028.

EH Bildu, pragmatic, calculates that after these elections it will not govern Euskadi. His objective, facing April, is to continue growing and reducing distances with the PNV, as indicated by the surveys known so far which, although they must be read with caution, set trends. The December Basque Sociometer gives EH-Bildu significant growth, but without surpassing the PNV, which suffers a significant drop. Specifically, the Abertzales rose from 21 to 24 or 25 seats while the PNV fell from 31 to 27 or 28. An electoral forecast that the party interprets as reasonable, since they believe, on the one hand, that, despite the change of image, the PNV It will suffer wear and tear, although it is very difficult for EH-Bildu to surpass the 10 seats that the Peneuvistas won in 2020 in a single regional election. On the other hand, it is confident of growing at the expense of Podemos. The latest polls predict a drop from 6 to 3 seats for this party, motivated by its internal conflicts with Sumar and the lack of definition of its candidacy, conditioned by the crisis in Galicia. EH-Bildu, in addition to having a powerful organizational structure, continues to give prominence to its social programs with the aim of opening up to new young and non-nationalist sectors, which harms Podemos.

Likewise, EH Bildu has internalized the speech of the PSE – the party that will predictably have the key to decide who governs – that it will not allow its presence in the Basque Government, reiterated by its general secretary, Eneko Andueza, after the support of the Navarrese socialists to the nationalist candidate Joseba Asiron at the Pamplona City Council. The PSE, which reiterates the exceptional nature of the Pamplona case due to the misgovernment of UPN, considers that, in addition to the ethical arguments – the hard core of EH Bildu has pending self-criticism for its past complicity with ETA -, many of its cadres are left still a journey to overcome the drastic methods, typical of a radical organization, and apply reformist policies in the institutions. A deficiency that meant he lost the Provincial Council of Gipuzkoa and the mayor of San Sebastián in 2015.

The PSE claims its role as a facilitator of the “central rail” of Basque politics after 10 years of coalition government with the PNV and believes that it is still valid. The government coalition of nationalists and non-nationalists, agreed between Lehendakari Urkullu and the then general secretary of the PSE, Idoia Mendia, prevented Euskadi from entering the dynamics of Catalonia, the pact between nationalists and the conflict with the non-nationalists, which reached the paroxysm with processes. After the next Basque elections, there are many possibilities that the government agreement will be renewed with the new leaders, the Peneuvista Pradales and the socialist Andueza. The polls give a slight improvement to the PSE – from 10 to 11 or 12 seats – which would partially compensate for the hypothetical loss of the PNV. The PSE assures that the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, views favorably the repetition of the coalition and, despite the electoral rivalry betwee
n the PNV and EH Bildu, they believe that it will not affect the stability of the central Executive. The electoral rivalry has not prevented the PNV from supporting the EH Bildu candidate in Pamplona. The rejection of the radical PP-Vox-UPN bloc unites them.

The current Basque PP and its new candidate, Javier de Andrés, follow the radical discourse of the headquarters. The loose verses of the Basque PP, such as Borja Sémper and Javier Maroto, have been swallowed up by the harsh speech of Genoa, which opens expectations for the PNV of achieving a moderate vote for the PP and even more so with the expectation of growth of EH Bildu. The Sociometer grants the Basque PP the six seats it obtained in the previous legislature with Ciudadanos plus the absorption of the only Basque parliamentarian from Vox.

However, although the possibility of a change of Government and cycle is not among the most probable hypotheses, the next Basque elections will serve to verify whether the new trends that the spring and summer elections pointed out are confirmed or what direction they take. It will also be interesting to observe the pull of the generational renewal, of the new candidates for lehendakari, since all the parties – with the only doubt in the area of ​​Sumar and Podemos – have changed their headliners.

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