Parties have 21 and 19 candidates in 1st place or tied for that position, according to recent surveys available in 94 of the 103 municipalities with more than 200 thousand voters; Lula’s PT is 14
THE PLacronym of the former president Jair Bolsonaroand the Union Brazil they reach the 1st round of the election this Sunday (6.Oct.2024) as the parties that have the most competitive candidates in the largest cities in Brazil.
The parties have, respectively, 21 and 19 members in 1st place or tied for that position within the margin of error in the most recent surveys available in 94 of the 103 municipalities with more than 200 thousand voters, the so-called G103. In 9 of these 103 cities there are no voting intention studies registered with the TSE and with reliable data released in the last 10 days.
THE PTfrom the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silvahas advanced in recent days and is now the 3rd party with the most candidates leading or tied: 14. Other acronyms further to the left, the PSB (4), the Psol (1), and the PDT (1), there are 6 more politicians on the list.
THE MDB (13) and the PSD (13), from Gilberto Kassabappear in 4th and 5th place in the ranking.
Attention😮 Power360 This report only considered polls officially registered with the Electoral Court carried out from September 25th to October 5th. Only surveys that have complete reports of known results were taken into account. Studies with partial data disclosure were disregarded.
In this report, competitive candidates are those who meet at least one of these qualifications: 1) be in 1st position alone in an intention and vote survey or 2) being tied in margin of error with other competitors in the lead in this dispute.
The results of the most recent polls before the 1st round indicate that acronyms more towards the center, such as União Brasil, MDB, PSD and PP, should elect, combined, more mayors in large cities than the left and right.
The PL (which includes members from the center to the right of the political spectrum) has candidates leading in Aracaju (SE), Belo Horizonte (MG), Cuiabá (MT), Fortaleza (CE), Goiânia (GO), Maceió (AL), Palmas (TO), Rio Branco (AC), Anápolis (GO), Blumenau (SC), Cascavel (PR), Foz do Iguaçu (PR), Guarulhos (SP), Jaboatão dos Guararapes (PE), Limeira (SP), Mogi das Cruzes (SP), Olinda (PE), Santos (SP), São Gonçalo (RJ), São José dos Campos (SP) and Suzano (SP).
The PT (leftist and Lula’s acronym) has competitive candidates in Fortaleza (CE), Goiânia (GO), Teresina (PI), Anápolis (GO), Camaçari (BA), Caucaia (CE), Contagem (MG), Feira Santana (BA), Juiz de Fora (MG), Mauá (SP), Olinda (PE), Pelotas (RS), Santa Maria (RS) and Sumaré (SP).
Read in the infographics below which are the leaders in the most recent surveys in cities in the G103the group of 103 largest Brazilian cities:
- Cities with more than 200 thousand voters (from the letter A to D):
- Cities with more than 200 thousand voters (from the letter E to O):
- Cities with more than 200 thousand voters (from the letter P to Z):
As determined by the Constitution, the 1st round of elections is always on the 1st Sunday of October. The surveys considered for this report are a photograph of the moment in which the data collection was carried out – often the movements of hours or days before the opening of the polls change the scenario significantly.
The scenario in G103, a group of 103 largest cities in Brazil, is important because they are where 38.8% of the country’s voters are concentrated. It is in these locations where it is possible to have a 2nd round, when no candidate gets at least 50% plus 1 of the votes in this initial round on October 6th. Read the full list of 103 cities.
To prepare to obtain support in the 2026 general elections, the PT gave up launching its own candidates in some cities.
The biggest objective of PT members in terms of national exposure is to help elect Guilherme Boulosfrom Psol, in the city of São Paulo. The dispute in the capital of São Paulo is considered nationalized between voters of Lula (who supports Boulos) and Bolsonaro (who supports the current mayor Ricardo Nunesfrom MDB). About the dispute in São Paulo, read the Special Drive prepared by this team Power360.
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
To list the electoral polls, the Power360 searched the database daily TSE (Superior Electoral Court) to check which studies were officially registered (a requirement of the Electoral Law). THE Power360 he also carried out daily searches in local newspapers and on the internet in general (to check which results were published in full).
The scenario stimulated by the most recent studies, with known methodologies and from which it was possible to verify the origin of the information, was always considered. Preference was given to data on valid votes (when this information was not available, total votes were used). Only surveys were considered from September 25th to October 5th, 2024. All surveys were registered with the Electoral Court. Read the full text at the end of this post.
When many researches were carried out in a close period, this digital newspaper chose to consider the study of the best-known and most relevant company in the market.
There are also cases in which research companies did not disclose the full results, making it impossible to check the data. In these situations, the research chosen was the 2nd most current.
This survey was completed early Saturday night (Oct 6, 2024).
SEARCH AGGREGATOR
THE Power360 offers its readers the oldest and most complete Research Aggregator on the internet in Brazil. It brings together thousands of voting intention surveys from all companies since the year 2000. In election years, only studies that are registered with the Electoral Court and have a known complete methodology are published. Do you have any research to share? Email the full text to Power360: [email protected].
To access the Research Aggregator, click here and search for the data you want for disputes from 2024 or all previous years. This tool offers access only to subscribers of the Power Monitorthe most complete monitoring tool for the Three Powers and everything related to power. To sign the Power Monitor and have access for 30 days free (including intention and voting surveys), Click here.
Learn how to use the aggregator by watching the video below (1min12s):
OBSERVATIONS AND RESPONSIBILITIES
The data on stimulated voting intentions (with the presentation of the names of the candidates to the interviewees) are compiled from the results of electoral surveys published by the companies themselves and by media outlets.
The results presented are the sole technical and methodological responsibility of the research companies that carried out the surveys.
Additional clarifications can/should be obtained from the TRE (Regional Electoral Court) of each State, the TSE or the research companies themselves.
In the capitals:
In big cities:
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