Pereira vs. Santa Fe: this is the possible final of the 2024-I League, according to the probabilities

The final of the 2024-I League is getting closer and closer and Deportivo Pereira, in group A, and Santa Fe, in group B, are the leaders of the home runs after four days.

In quadrangular A, which took place on Wednesday, two goalless draws (Bucaramanga vs. Millonarios and Pereira vs. Junior) maintained the differences in the table, with Leonel Álvarez’s team maintaining the top of the zone.

On the other hand, in group B, Santa Fe and Tolima, with their victories against Once Caldas and La Equidad, respectively, have already put ground in the middle and practically buried the hopes of those led by Hernán Darío Herrera. Insurers no longer have any options. ​

The odds to reach the final in group A

Xpecta Sports is an account that, on social networks, analyzes the probabilities of each team day after day, taking into account different factors. “We make use of data to analyze sport from an innovative point of view,” they say in their presentation.
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​After the fourth day, Xpecta Sports did the calculations and assures that Deportivo Pereira is the team with the highest probability of being a finalist: 42.5 percent. Bucaramanga has 27.8 percent, Millonarios 15.1 percent and Junior, 14.6 percent.
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​Pereira depends on himself and could even qualify on Saturday, if he defeats Millonarios and there is no winner in the duel between Junior and Bucaramanga, in Barranquilla.
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Bucaramanga also has the classification in its hands without depending on other results, but must win both games.

The odds of group B

Santa Fe took a very important step by beating Once Caldas 1-0 and, in Xpecta Sports calculations, has the highest probability of being a finalist: 58.5 percent. They could also qualify early on Sunday, if they beat La Equidad in El Campin and Tolima does not defeat Once Caldas.
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Tolima was left with the second option, with 39.7 percent, although, as is the case with Bucaramanga in group A, it also depends on itself: by winning both games it will be a finalist. The Once Caldas option is very low (1.8 percent) and Equidad is already eliminated from everything.