In the face of heavy defeats in the war against Ukraine, Russia is escalating. Kremlin boss Putin has sham referendums and announces a partial mobilization of the armed forces. What exactly does that mean?
Moscow – In four occupied Ukrainian regions, Russia is letting people vote on accession to Russia in democratically illegitimate bogus referendums. At the same time, Russia wants to send a total of 300,000 reservists to Ukraine – around twice as many as are estimated to have been fighting there so far. They should bring the turning point in the war that has been going on for seven months and is anything but successful from the Kremlin’s point of view. Among other things, a planned large-scale annexation of Ukrainian areas is to be enforced. But is that realistic? The most important questions and answers:
What role do planned annexations of Ukrainian territories play?
From Friday, the occupiers in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as in Cherson and Zaporizhia in the south, want to push through votes on union with Russia that violate international law. These are sham referendums because they are being held without Ukraine’s consent, under martial law and not according to democratic principles. With the four areas, Moscow threatens to annex an area of over 108,000 square kilometers. That corresponds to the size of Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg together.
Similarly, Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine’s Black Sea peninsula, back in 2014. As was the case then, international recognition is not in sight this time either. Nevertheless, the Kremlin would classify future attacks on Luhansk, Donetsk, Cherson and Zaporizhia as attacks on its own territory. And Putin threatens: “If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will definitely use all available means to protect Russia and our people.” That includes nuclear weapons.
How does Putin justify the annexation?
Putin justifies this with the alleged protection of the civilian population there from Ukrainian attacks. Two and a half million people had to flee because of the fighting. “Those who stayed – about five million people – are now subjected to constant artillery and rocket attacks from neo-Nazi fighters. They attack hospitals and schools and carry out terrorist attacks against civilians,” Putin claimed in his mobilization speech.
What does partial mobilization mean in concrete terms?
The decree forces Russians to take part in the war, which until now – at least in theory – was voluntary. 300,000 reservists are to be drafted, starting immediately. According to the Ministry of Defence, former conscripts and regular service soldiers up to the age of 35 and reserve officers in the lower ranks up to the age of 45 are affected. First and foremost, men with combat experience and special military training should be sent to war.
How should partial mobilization be enforced?
Russia’s governors were directly instructed to organize the enlistment of soldiers in their regions. To enforce the mobilization, Putin has also just tightened several laws. Desertion and “voluntary” entry into captivity are now severely punished.
In addition, after Putin’s order for partial mobilization, conscripted Russians are no longer allowed to leave their place of residence according to the law. The State Duma, on the other hand, said that people could still travel undisturbed within Russia, but that trips abroad were no longer recommended.
What is Putin’s goal with the recruitment of reservists?
There is still official talk in Moscow only of a “special military operation” in the Ukraine – and so far it has probably not brought anywhere near the hoped-for result for the Kremlin. After seven months of war, Russia has conquered larger areas in the east and south of Ukraine, but recently suffered a severe defeat: under pressure from Ukrainian counter-offensives, Russian troops withdrew almost completely from the northern Kharkiv region. In other regions, too, the Russian occupiers are threatened with losing control.
In addition, according to independent observers, the losses are significantly higher than the figure of almost 6,000 dead Russian soldiers now conceded by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Against this background, Putin probably hopes to be able to bring about a turnaround on the battlefield with the reservists who have now been mobilized. And he is also likely to speculate that his recent threats will intimidate Ukraine and its Western supporters.
How realistic are Putin’s plans?
According to forecasts by international military experts, Russia is likely to take longer than expected and will only be able to set up units with dubious combat effectiveness. “Partial mobilization will only really have an impact on the ground in a few months,” says Green Party politician Sara Nanni. The US military expert Rob Lee said on Twitter that more and more soldiers on the Russian side were involved in the fight who didn’t want to be there. His conclusion: “The difference in morale and the cohesion of the troops between Ukrainian and Russian associations is increasing.”
What do the developments mean for Ukrainian counter-offensives?
In Kyiv, the announcement from Moscow was noted calmly. The external advisor to the Ukrainian presidential office, Mykhailo Podoliak, asked on Twitter: “Is everything still going according to plan or not?” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously emphasized that Ukraine would not be intimidated. In addition, fresh forces are likely to arrive on the Ukrainian side in the coming months. For example, Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in Great Britain and other western countries.
How is the West doing?
High-ranking Western politicians see Putin’s announcement as a “sign of weakness” and an “act of desperation” over Russia’s recent military failures. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Putin “completely underestimated” the situation from the start. However, it is unclear how Western countries will deal with the new escalation apart from words – especially with Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons if necessary. So far, far-reaching sanctions have been imposed on Russia and arms and ammunition have been supplied to Ukraine. However, direct military intervention by the West is ruled out.
How are the Russians reacting to the partial mobilization?
Since the beginning of the war, many Russians have feared such a move by the Kremlin. On Wednesday, independent organizations set up direct counseling hotlines for men who receive a call-up notice. Many flights to countries that can still be reached from Russia were fully booked. There were protests in several cities, and more than 1,000 people were arrested. Nationwide unrest is not to be expected. On the one hand, the Kremlin has recently massively expanded its repression of critics. In addition, Russia’s state media have been drumming into citizens for months that the country is being attacked by NATO and the “collective West” – and that defending against it is now a patriotic duty. dpa
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