04/10/2024 – 22:20
A survey by the Paraná Pesquisas institute released on Friday night, 4th, shows that the current mayor, Ricardo Nunes (MDB) has 26.8% of voting intentions in the dispute for Mayor of São Paulo. Federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) appears with 26% and former coach Pablo Marçal (PRTB), 24.2%. The three are technically tied within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. The data are from stimulated research.
The previous survey, released on Monday, October 1st, also had a three-way tie between the three as a result. However, there have been numerical variations since then. Nunes, who had 27%, fluctuated 0.2 points down. In the opposite direction, Boulos fluctuated one point higher in relation to the previous 25%. Marçal fluctuated positively by 1.7 points, from 22.5%.
In the second platoon of the survey, deputy Tabata Amaral (PSB) appears with 11.5% (was 8.9%), followed by presenter José Luiz Datena (PSDB), with 3.5% (she had 6%), and economist Marina Helena (Novo), which scored the same 1.7% as three days ago. The undecided went from 3.5% to 2.5% and the blanks and null, which were 4.6%, are now 3.5%.
Bebeto Haddad (DC), has 0.2%, Ricardo Senese (UP) and João Pimenta (PCO), 0.1% each. Altino Prazeres (PSTU) did not score.
Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,500 voters in the city of São Paulo between September 30th and October 3rd. The confidence level of the survey is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number SP-09433/2024.
In the spontaneous survey, when the candidates’ names are not informed to voters, Nunes was mentioned by 18.7% (was 19.9%), Boulos by 18.5% (was 18.4%) and Marçal by 18.1 % (was 17.3%).
Tabata was mentioned 5.9% of the time (before it was 5.8%), Datena for 1.7% (2.7%) and Marina Helena, 0.8% (1.2%). João Pimenta was mentioned by 0.1% and other names mentioned totaled 0.6%.
Undecided voters fluctuated from 29.5% to 31.6%, while 4% said they would vote for no one, blank or cancel the vote, compared to 4.6% in the previous survey.
Second round
Paraná Pesquisas also tested second round scenarios. Nunes beats Boulos by 50.6% to 35.3%, with 14.1% undecided, blank and null. The confrontation between the two is stable, since in the previous round the mayor beat the psolista by 51.5% to 33.6%.
Nunes also beats Marçal, in this case by 53.1% to 28.9% for the former coach. Undecided, blank and null are 18.1%. Once again, the scenario did not change significantly. Three days ago, the score was 53.9% to 28.5%.
In a possible second round between Boulos and Marçal, the PSOL candidate beats the PRTB name by 44.6% to 38.2%. There are 17.2% undecided, blank and null. In the previous round, Boulos also won, but by 45.1% to 39.1%.
Marçal and Boulos have a high rejection rate
Paraná Pesquisas asked respondents which candidates they would not vote for at all. Marçal was mentioned by 43.2%, compared to 39.3% three days ago. Boulos went from 30.3% to 34.9%, while Ricardo Nunes fluctuated from 9.7% to 9.2%. Each interviewee was able to mention more than one candidate.
Datena remained at 21.8%, Tabata fluctuated from 9.1% to 9.5% and Marina Helena went from 6.6% to 7.5%.
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