Pacheco is favorite, but Marinho tries to take the dispute to the 2nd round

The President of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), is the favorite in the race for the presidency of Casa Alta. Tells allies he will emerge victorious with more than 50 votes on Wednesday (1.Feb.2023). The main opponent, the senator-elect Rogerio Marinho (PL-RN), however, bets on the undecided. Claims to have up to 34 votes guaranteed (which shows that there are senators promising votes for the 2 candidates) and tries to take the election to the 2nd round.

Bolsonaro’s former minister says there is no game won and declares to allies: the undecided will define the election. With secret ballot, there will be betrayals on both sides.

Whoever receives the absolute majority of votes (41 senators) is elected to the Senate. If no candidate reaches that number, the 2 most voted candidates go to a 2nd round of voting. That’s what Marino wants. He has the votes of the 3rd and least competitive candidate, Senator Eduardo Girao (We can EC), to stretch the dispute. The feat would be unprecedented, since all former presidents won in the 1st round.

The current president has received support from 6 parties – whether formal or tacit. It is supported by PSD, MDB, PT, União Brasil, PSB and PDT. Rede and Cidadania, with 1 senator each, also support him. But the 2 affiliated to these acronyms, Randolph Rodrigues (AP-Network) and Eliziane Gama (Cidadania-MA), decided to change subtitles. They go to PT and PSD, respectively.

Pacheco articulated changes that should make the PSD, its legend, have the biggest bench. Marinho has 3 acronyms aligned with his candidacy: PL, Progressives and Republicans. Podemos and PSDB are seen as undefined benches.

On Saturday (January 28), when launching his candidacy, Marinho nodded to the center parties. He said that if he is elected on February 1, he will sign the opening of a CPI (Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry) to investigate the January 8 attacks. He criticized the current government, which, according to him, was previously favorable to investigations and is now against it.

Watch the full event with PL, PP and Republicans (35min25s):

DIFFERENT STRATEGIES

The 2 most competitive candidates have drawn completely different strategies in recent days.

Marinho was minister of the former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL). With the motto of rescuing the protagonism of the House, his candidacy seeks to continue the actions of Bolsonaro and the previous president, Michel Temer (MDB). In his assessment, these policies were responsible for the reduction in unemployment, observed in 2022. According to the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), unemployment ended last year at 8.1% – the lowest rate in 7 years.

Marinho traveled to almost every state and visited more than 60 colleagues. The senator’s active prospecting during the last few days was seen as positive. Part of Housemates, however, saw as negative the Bolsonarist virtual militancy movement of attack your peers and demand Marinho’s vote in an incisive way.

Pacheco delivered the joint in favor of candidacy for the ally Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), which caused friction with one wing of the Senate. With a more discreet profile, he concentrated his efforts on continuing the political arrangements already agreed with his group. In favor of Pacheco, the cordiality and defense of democratic institutions weigh.

JOINTS ON THE EVE OF THE ELECTION

A few days before the election for the presidency of the Senate, leaders of parties that support Pacheco are moving to come out on top in the bargain for positions on the Board of Directors and in charge of the main commissions if the miner is re-elected.

With difficulty reconciling the appetite of PSD, União Brasil, MDB and PT, Pacheco intensified the agenda of conversations in his official residence. In several cases, two or more of these legends claim the same space in the structure of the House.

The most coveted positions are the 1st vice-presidency and the 1st secretary of the Senate and the presidencies of CCJ (Commission on Constitution and Justice), of the CAE (Commission on Economic Affairs) and the CRE (Committee on Foreign Affairs and National Defense).

The agreement initially coordinated by Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP) –the main electoral supporter of Pacheco– would maintain Veneziano Vital do Rêgo (MDB-PB) in the 1st vice-presidency and management Rogerio Carvalho (PT-SE) to the 1st secretary.

However, the majority of PT senators complain about Carvalho for having worked out a deal directly with his colleagues at the board of directors, without consulting the bench – who wanted to claim the 1st vice and nominate Humberto Costa (EP) for the post.

the senator Eliziane Gama (Cidadania-MA) also intended to run for 1st runner-up. Her likely migration to Pacheco’s PSD, however, should deter her from this postulation.

Occupying the 1st vice-presidency gives visibility. Whoever holds the position assumes the conduct of deliberative sessions when the holder is absent from the plenary and represents the Senate institutionally when the president is unable to do so.

The 1st secretary is a kind of “town hall” of the Senate, with final say on the budget and contracts of the House and all appointments to commissioned positions. This administrative power weighs heavily on the internal influence of those who assume the post.

A wing of the PSD is dissatisfied with the articulations of Pacheco and Alcolumbre, considering that, as it is the party of the President of the Senate (if re-elected) and the one with the largest bench, it should receive positions in greater quantity and importance.

It is on this dissatisfaction that Marinho bets to capture votes initially directed at Pacheco. The House presidency election will be held on Wednesday (Feb.1, 2023), right after the inauguration of the 27 senators elected in 2022, scheduled for 3 pm.

Once the president of the Senate is elected for the next biennium, the leaders of the benches meet to announce the formation of blocks and, in a negotiation that involves political criteria and party proportionality, distribute the commands of commissions. The choice of the other members of the board of directors will be for the morning of Thursday (Feb 2).