The recent US-Mexico talks over the Christmas break aimed at addressing the thorny issue of migration have started to produce some results. Mexico took steps to alleviate the flow of migrants towards the northern border by breaking up the caravan that departed from Chiapas (southern Mexico) on December 24. The government promised them a document for legal stay in the country and arranged transportation to shelters near the Guatemala border, prioritizing families and vulnerable groups. However, there was no mention of the humanitarian visas that have been issued in the past. In return, the United States took several steps to ease tensions with Mexico. The Biden administration urgently petitioned the Supreme Court to allow federal agents to remove the barbed wire that Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered to prevent the entry of irregular migrants. Mexico's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is also happy about the imminent opening of four border posts in California, Arizona and Texas. This will help goods flow across the extensive US-Mexico border, addressing the economic concerns discussed in the recent meetings.
The constant and growing influx of migrants poses a significant challenge for Mexico and the United States, as they are each other's largest trading partners. Irregular migration is also a major issue in US domestic politics, particularly in an election year. The Biden administration has repeatedly urged President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to take stronger measures to control migration. Discussions led to political actions, with a 35% rise in arrests of the tens of thousands amassing at the border.
Political friction that leads to stricter anti-migration measures can create confusion for foreigners, who often don't know what to expect. When the Mexican government promised to give unspecified documents to the large migrant caravan that departed from Chiapas, some chose to accept and boarded buses to shelters, hoping for a legal stay in Mexico. Others rejected the offer and continued on foot toward the northern border.
In early January, 30 migrants went missing while traveling on a bus in Tamaulipas, one of Mexico's most dangerous states. In this part of northern Mexico, organized crime groups kidnap foreigners for ransom or as forced recruits. The government labeled this incident as “atypical” due to the large number of people involved, but similar incidents with tragic outcomes have happened before.
Political strife over migration is also escalating in the United States. The federal government and the state of Texas are involved in a legal dispute to determine responsibility for installing or removing border fences. Governor Abbott has spent over $11 million on 70,000 rolls of razor wire. The Supreme Court is now tasked with making the final decision after multiple rulings and appeals in lower courts.
When the migration crisis worsens, the focus shifts away from walls and fences. The United States starts closing customs posts along the border, disrupting the daily flow of merchandise worth millions of dollars. Freight trains are emptied of their cargo and fill up with thousands of migrants heading north. The large deaths of migrants atop trains cause a public outcry in Mexico, leading to stoppages by private railway companies. Negotiations then intensify to resolve the stoppages and avoid substantial financial losses that impact Mexican employers.
During the final meeting on December 27, an agreement was reached to intensify efforts to disrupt human trafficking, crack down on criminal networks, and promote legal pathways for migration. The United States has committed to addressing the root causes of irregular migration, opening doors to trade and easing the economic sanctions that contribute to the unprecedented human exodus. However, economic factors are not the only reasons that drive people into exile. Political repression and human rights abuses have forced thousands to flee Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela and other countries. In response to the US measures, Mexico is expected to take action to prevent migrants from traveling through the country to the United States.
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