In a monthly report released this Wednesday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reduced the forecast for the Brazilian supply of the commodity this year, from 3.74 million barrels per day (bpd) to 3.72 million bpd . If confirmed, the result would be equivalent to an increase of 50,000 bpd compared to 2020.
According to the cartel, the forecast cut comes after the drop in supply in August, from 50,000 bpd, to 3 million bpd, despite the start of production in the Sepia field, in Santos. The group explains that the stoppage in other fields, for maintenance and sanitary regulations, forced a decrease in supply. OPEC also recalls that production on the P-80 FPSO platform, in Búzios, will only resume in 2022.
For 2022, the forecast is that the production of the commodity in Brazil will rise to 3.95 million bpd. The supply is expected to increase due to two new projects, the Mero-1 field (Guanabara), which was initially planned to start in 2021, and the Peregrino-Phase 2.
OPEC kept its forecasts for the growth of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unchanged this year and next. According to a monthly report released today, the cartel predicts that the country’s economic activity will advance 4.7% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022. The document highlights that the largest economy in Latin America has been supported by the improvement in the service sector, but that the bottlenecks in the global production chain weigh on industrial activity. OPEC cites as negative risks to the projections uncertainties regarding inflation, fiscal balance and also the presidential elections of 2022.
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