It crunches between Söder and Aiwanger. The FDP pours fuel on the fire. In an internal strategy paper, the Liberals call for Aiwangers MPs to convert.
Munich – The FDP wants to work behind the scenes to break the coalition in Bavaria. One wants to try to persuade several MPs of the Free Voters to change factions, it says in a confidential strategy paper of the Landtag faction, which circulates in Munich and the Munich Mercury is present. “Only eight defectors would be needed to enable a black and yellow majority,” it says. “That could happen very quickly.”
So far it is not enough for the CSU (84 MPs) and FDP (11) to have a majority in the state parliament. At least 103 votes would be needed to rule in the state parliament (205 people). Because things are fermenting in the CSU and among Free Voters, however, and displeasure with Vice-Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger is growing, the Liberals do not consider it to be ruled out that MPs will change parties. It is legally possible.
The FDP would find their trick “very exciting”
It wouldn’t be the first time. In 2018, the Lower Bavarian MP Alexander Muthmann took this step from FW to FDP, he was re-elected. The FDP praises itself as having good contacts with the liberal wing of the FW parliamentary group. “We are intensifying this (…) and analyzing which FW MPs would suit us in terms of content.” Perhaps the displeasure with Aiwanger is growing. One thinks that is “quite exciting”.
However, the scenario is hardly realistic. The alliance in Bavaria is not as shattered as the angry CSU sentences about Aiwanger suggest. Many FW MPs value Prime Minister Markus Söder very much – and vice versa. In addition, the CSU also has its own problems: after the mask affair, it lost the MP Alfred Sauter, who is now non-attached in the state parliament.
Bavaria: Aiwanger is radicalizing, scoffs the FDP
A hastily cobbled together black and yellow majority would also be shaky, in the Corona policy there are differences between Söder and the FDP parliamentary group leader Martin Hagen, who argues very vehemently for openings and against new rules. One or two dissenters in votes would collapse the whole construct, the government would be embarrassed.
Even the FDP calls a black-green alliance after a coalition break as more likely. New elections in Bavaria would also be conceivable. That should take a few months, however. The result would be uncertain – polls currently still do not predict a certain black-and-yellow majority.
The FDP’s strategic goal: to make free voters nervous
In any case, the liberal strategists with their three-page paper are likely to have the greatest pleasure in increasing the nervousness among the coalition parties, especially among the free voters. The FDP describes Aiwanger’s vaccine-skeptical statements of the past few days as “radicalization”. He is moving “into the AfD’s playing field”.
Meanwhile, there is sharp criticism of the FDP from the AfD. State vice-president Gerd Mannes said that “the two five percent parties” FDP and FW are “ready for any outrage”. The party converts would be electoral deception, the protagonists “transparent opportunists who do not shy away from any political calculation”. (CD)