Only 18.8% think that January 8th was a coup

The research company AtlasIntel released this Monday (January 8, 2024) an opinion survey on the extremist acts of January 8th on the date that marks the 1-year anniversary of the attacks. The survey indicates that only 18.8% of those interviewed say they believe that the coup d'état was the main motivation for the acts, clashing with the approach given by authorities at the ceremony that recalled the episode in the National Congress. Here's the complete of the research (PDF – 5 MB).

1,200 people were interviewed from January 7th to 8th, 2024. The questionnaire was carried out online and received responses from all regions of the country. The first survey on the topic was carried out in 2023. The results provide an overview of public opinion after the attacks in Praça dos Três Poderes.

For 59% of those interviewed, the invasion of the National Congress, the Planalto Palace and the STF (Federal Supreme Court) is “completely unjustified”. The percentage grew 6 pp compared to the survey carried out in 2023, when the percentage was 53%. Another 15% said they were “partially justified”. Last year, this number was 28%.

“Political fanaticism and polarization” are the main motivations behind attacks, according to AtlasIntel research: 34.2%. Next comes:

• “Electoral fraud”: 20.8%
• “Attempt to coup d'etat”: 18.8%; It is
• “Third party manipulation”: 12.2%.

During the ceremony to remember the episode, authorities said in speeches that the demonstration was a “attack on democracy”. There were also mentions of the need to pacify the country and combat political polarization.

The episode is treated by members of the government as an attempt to force a coup d'état against the recently initiated 3rd government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). In general, the government discourse says that the reactions of the Executive and Judiciary “Saved Democracy” in the country.

In his speech to mark the date, Lula said that “there is no forgiveness for those who attack democracy, their country and their own people”.

The PT member also stated that, if “coup attempt” had been successful, the country would have been immersed in social and economic chaos.

Risk to democracy

For almost 59.2% of those interviewed, Brazilian democracy was at some risk as a result of the actions of January 8th. Of these, 43.3% think the risk was great, while 15.9% think there was some risk, but not that high.

Read other AtlasIntel research highlights

• 80% of those interviewed support democracy as a political system to govern Brazil;
• 42.8% think that the punishments for invaders were exaggerated; 36.1% believe they are adequate;
• 52.1% think that Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is responsible for the invasion of Congress, the Planalto Palace and the STF;
• 52.8% think that Bolsonaro should suffer some legal punishment as a result of the events of January 8; 53.4% ​​of them think he should be arrested and 53.1% that he should lose his political rights;