The Omicron variant of Covid could be less serious, milder. This is what preliminary studies carried out with the first evidence collected both in the United Kingdom and South Africa suggest. These evidences would seem to indicate that fewer people need hospital treatment than other variants. The feeling already expressed by experts of the African country that first intercepted the new mutant could therefore not be unfounded. A first set of data comes from the United Kingdom, precisely from a Scottish study that monitored the coronavirus and the number of people who end up in hospital.
According to reports from the ‘BBC online’, research indicates that, if Omicron had behaved like Delta, about 47 hospitalizations would have been expected on the patient base examined, while at the moment there are 15. However, the Scottish study is based on a few cases and in the sample there are few people over 65 who are the most at risk. What experts continue to fear, moreover, is that – albeit milder – the Omicron variant, given the speed with which it is traveling, could bring an enormous amount of cases. And this, under the law of large numbers, could equally risk overwhelming hospitals. The study was shared with the World Health Organization and the UK government’s scientific advisors.
The other work was conducted in South Africa and this also indicates that people are less likely to need hospitalization for Omicron. Potentially a reduction of about two thirds is indicated, that is it is estimated a 70-80% less likely to have to resort to hospital treatment, depending on whether Omicron is being compared with previous waves or with other variants currently in circulation. However, the same work suggests at the same time that there is no difference in outcomes for the few patients who ended up in hospital with Omicron.
“Convincingly, our data suggest Omicron’s reduced severity compared to other variants,” said Cheryl Cohen of the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in South Africa. It is still unclear whether the Omicron variant is milder in itself or if it appears milder because there is now much more immunity. New data in the coming days could further clarify the picture.
Meanwhile in South Africa, after the very rapid surge in cases, the number of new infections is now falling and is down by 20%, compared to last week. This is what South African researchers report, interviewed by various international media, including the New York Times.
According to epidemiologist Michelle Groome, of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases, in the epicenter of the latest wave experienced by the country, the province of Gauteng, where Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria are located, the peak seems to have been reached last week. “It is encouraging – said the scientist – in terms of decreasing trends and number of cases”.
Studies based on the earliest recorded cases in Gauteng province also seem to suggest that Covid-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant tend to be less severe than those associated with earlier variants. And yet, experts note, in the province of Guateng there is a higher percentage of vaccinated than in the rest of the country and this could have mitigated the action of the virus.
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