The price of oil is a good indicator of the Risk aversion and commercial tensions Global Well, the crude oil market has begun to quote a scenario with which no one had very much counted that Donald Trump had launched one of his crazy electoral promises. The crude has begun to discount (slightly) the possible end of the Ukraine War. Brent and West Texas prices reflect the expectation of a world without the Ukraine War. After the discount of the tension in the Middle East, Ukraine seems to be the next scenario that will seek peaceaccording to the negotiations implemented by Donald Trump. This leads to Brent Barril to quote below $ 74.6which brings crude to minimum of the year. This scenario, which has not yet been executed, is currently managing. Few would have opted that a war could really be put an end in which neither part was willing to yield. However, if Ukraine loses the support of the US and Russia forms the advances made so far … the end of the war will be a reality.
On the other hand, the opinion of the market consensus by 2025 is that there will be a raw oversupply. Meanwhile, the global demand will continue in the terms of the past exercise due to the slow recovery of the Chinese economy. Therefore, several analysis firms do not rule out see a price of $ 60 per barrel this year, which would be to see the lowest prices since 2021.
The phone call that changes everything
Brent reacted down after knowing that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, held telephone conversations this afternoon with his counterparts in Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Volodimir Zelenski, respectively, to initiate negotiations that end the war between the two countries of Eastern Europe after almost three years of conflict. Likewise, it also exerted pressure on the price of oil, the US inflation data, which grew 3% year -on -year in January, a tenth more than in December 2024.
It is a greater percentage than expected by analysts, who fear that, together with the imposition of tariffs, stop the possibility of higher interest type cuts. “Interest rates should be lowered, which will go hand in hand with tariff increases. We go to rock and roll, America! Trump wrote today between exclamations in his social Truth network account.
For its part, the United States Federal Reserve, which decided at its last meeting to keep the invariable rates despite the requests of the US president, defended his independence again and assured that he will make decisions based on “what is happening in the economy in the economy ” Likewise, the organization of oil exporting countries and its allies (OPEP+) decided in their last monthly meeting to maintain their plans to gradually restart crude oil production for next April.
Overoferta in the oil market
The market is also discounting a greater raw overstower. The United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) provides for greater oil survey surpluses than had previously projected for this year and 2026driven by the continuous growth of American production and countries not belonging to OPEC. In addition, in case the war, the projections that the sanctions will probably do not make a dent in Russian production, as can be seen from the report.
The world markets of oil are expected to register an average surplus of 1 million barrels per day in 2026, the administration of energy information reported on Tuesday, above the surplus of 800,000 barrels per day that foreseen in the report last month. The forecast is twice than the surplus that the EIA expects for this year, which was also reviewed upwards with respect to its previous report
The surplus forecasts are due to the fact that oil production outside the OPEC and the US will be greater than expected. This increase in production can complicate OPEC+ plans to recover paralyzed production this year, and the agency provides that Petroleum inventories begin to increase significantly if OPEC+ It raises production in April 2025, as planned. In addition to surplus expectations, EIA predicted that the sanctions of the Biden Administration to the Russian crude imposed in January will not “significantly” significantly “the country’s oil production. Russian flows have barely begun to show signs of slowing. Read more: OPEC+ cling to your supply plan even if Trump wants to cut the price of oil
“Although the latest sanctions to Russia will slightly reduce the Russian oil production compared to what we foreshadowed last month, they will provoke above all changes in world commercial oil flows, which we do not predict in our prospects,” says EIA in its report . Even so, the agency indicates that the possibility of future tariffs and additional Russian sanctions are “sources of uncertainty” for oil prices.
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