Like Avdiivka before it, Pokrovsk now represents the tenacity of war. Russia is marching forward – seemingly without any regard for losses.
Pokrovsk – “In the Ukraine war, Russian soldiers face the threat of 1,000 deaths every day,” writes Stavros Atlamazoglou. In the magazine The National Interest The journalist refers to estimates by the British secret service that Vladimir Putin could be responsible for 700,000 casualties of his own army by the end of the third year of the war. At the same time, the magazine Forbes of Russia’s most costly 24 hours in the war: the invading army is said to have lost almost 200 vehicles in one day before Pokrovsk; and there is still no end in sight.
“The Russians are trying to seep in like water,” complains a Ukrainian artilleryman near Pokrovsk to the news magazine Mirror“They try everywhere, and when they find a crack, they push further forward. If they are repelled, they just try somewhere else.” Russia is relying on what its army has done in all wars: on the sheer mass of people that the military leadership is prepared to send to their deaths.
Pokrovsk: Ukrainians believe Russia still has the strength to go on the offensive
The Russians just don’t know that they are being attacked with ten times the number of their opponents, that many of the defensive positions are only being set up to deceive, and that the Ukrainian defenders are about to have to count their shells and cartridges. For the Russian enemy, everything seems to be looking as if Pokrovsk is a bulwark that they will have to break their teeth on. According to many media reports, the Ukrainians seem to believe that the Russians still have the strength to bite.
“The loss of a supply base and a major transport hub is very regrettable and will hurt a lot. “But if the situation can be stabilized in other ways, if the Russians cannot simply continue to advance unhindered, at the pace they have been advancing so far, or even faster … in that case it does not matter if they have lost a few villages here and there, or perhaps Pokrovsk.”
How Forbes reported that analyst Andrew Perpetua counted more than 180 damaged, destroyed and abandoned Russian vehicles in front of Pokrovsk within 24 hours – as well as heavy weapons. The losses of Ukraine itself are said to have been significantly lower, with less than three dozen vehicles. The blogger has published the list on X (formerly Twitter) published. ForbesAuthor David Axe compares this to the total Russian losses in the more than 900-day war in Ukraine: According to the statistics platform Oryx Russia lost an average of 19 heavy weapons per day.
In this respect, Pokrovsk caused the Russians ten times their losses in one day. As bad as that would be for the Russian military leadership, Sergey Vakulenko had predicted really bad prospects in mid-May – for Ukraine and the Western world. The economist believes that Russia may actually lack the means to continue the war beyond 2026, for example, as he puts it for the think tank Carnegie Foundation wrote.
Pokrovsk: Economist is convinced that Russians will continue to invest in the war
However, he believes it is unlikely that the Russian leadership would forego excessive military spending in favor of a recovery of the civilian economy. Russia has switched to a war economy and would also accept stagnating or falling wages for large parts of the population, said Vakulenko. According to him, it is still unlikely that even this would pose major problems for the regime in Russia.
This is due to the fact that the standard of living is still relatively high compared to the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. In addition, repressive measures, such as restrictions on freedom of speech, are keeping the people in line. Vakulenko sees the only danger in the fact that salaries in the administration and military will fall significantly – but the regime seems to be prepared for this.
Pokrovsk: Colonel complains that time is being given for his next operations against Putin
In this respect, the question remains open as to what effect the enormous loss at Pokrovsk will have on the Russians’ tactics and strategy. For example, the Kyiv-Post repeated She has taken on US President Joe Biden almost head-on: “US policy still protects most of Russia’s operational and deep hinterland, and US policy prohibits Ukraine from deploying ATACMS anywhere in Russia,” she writes. The seemingly never-ending supply of supplies from Russia will confirm her in this opinion.
The Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner has also often appeared publicly as a critic of the Western hesitation. He also believes that Russia still has the advantage – even if the Russian offensive has lost momentum for some time now, on the front in front of Pokrovsk and on other fronts. Despite all the successful and sometimes sensational successes against the aggressor, Russia always has time to prepare for future attacks:
Pokrovsk: Russia pays for every meter of the offensive with vast amounts of blood
“It is a game of cat and mouse – a race against time. If you want to achieve a decisive result, it is better to attack massively without warning – and not to do things lightly,” he says on his Youtube-Channel. However, Russia seems to have prepared itself for a concerted counter-offensive. Mirror< /em>-Author Christian Esch sees in Pokrovsk what Pokrovsk is: the archetype of this war.
No kilometer-wide tank attacks, as in the Second World War, no hours-long or days-long bombardments by two warring parties, as in the first global war. The Russians must pay for every meter of territory gained with blood: The Russians would not try to advance with large-scale attacks and the massed use of armored vehicles, “but with pinpricks, with constant attacks in small infantry groups,” as the Mirror writes.
Pokrovsk: The “big battle” is expected in mid-September
The Russian infantrymen would use every row of trees to hide from the drones in the steppe. How The Friday According to the Ukrainian military observer Alexander Mussijenko, the “great battle for Pokrovsk” will begin in mid-September. The Ukrainian army chief Olexander Syrskyj had told the Friday formulated even more optimistically and spoke of “foreseeable intense fighting” – but for both it seems equally certain:
“The result will probably be a widespread destruction of the city, as has already happened to Avdiivka and Bakhmut,” writes Friday-Author Gerd Meißner. According to him, Western analysts have agreed that the Ukrainian army will probably not be able to hold Pokrovsk for more than a week under massive bombardment.
The think tank Center for Defensive Strategies had also speculated at the beginning of September that the Russians would attack, for example, along the T0504 highway between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka during their offensive in order to gain control of it and prepare an attack on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad metropolitan area. At the moment, the Russians are said to be ten kilometers from Pokrovsk. “It can be assumed that the enemy will reach the city in mid-September, but will not be able to take it. The open terrain, which is unfavorable for an offensive, and possible counterattacks from the Selydove and Kostiantynivka areas will slow down his advance,” the authors write.
Pokrovsk: The city is probably not worth its price for either Ukraine or Russia
However, analysts are currently arguing whether Pokrovsk is worth the high losses on the Russian side or the Ukrainian efforts to push Russia back there. The fact is that this metropolis alone is consuming resources to an extent that neither side can foresee. Even if the Russians took Pokrovsk, it would perhaps have only a minimal impact on the course of the war, Konrad Muzyka suspects in the magazine Kyiv Independent.
“Although they are making tactical progress, they are unable to convert these tactical victories into breakthroughs at the operational level,” added the director of the Poland-based military consulting company Rochan, as reported by the Independent reported. A similar argument is made in Independent Pasi Paroinen on the possible fall of the city and the resulting loss for Ukraine: “The loss as a supply base and important transport hub is very regrettable and will hurt a lot,” says the analyst of the Finland-based information service Black Bird Group.
“But if the situation can be stabilized in other ways, if the Russians cannot simply continue to advance unhindered, at the rate they have been advancing so far, or even faster … in that case it does not matter if they have lost a few villages here and there, or perhaps Pokrovsk.” (KaHin)
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