Nvidia puts the November lows on Wall Street in check, is the ‘Christmas Rally’ in danger?

Beyond geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic concerns, the eyes of investors and analysts yesterday focused largely on Nvidia’s quarterly results. The American company managed to exceed the profit and sales estimates that the market consensus had projected for it, however, the earnings outlook it issued They left locals and strangers lukewarm, something that the Asian stock markets have already recorded and that is feared will take its toll on Wall Street.

And the fact is that the accounts of the company led by Jen-Hsun Huang They not only have an impact on its long list of suppliers, but also on global markets, given the size of the company and its role in the rise of artificial intelligence..

Its behavior would favor the reference selective in the US to continue the consolidation phase of recent days that is serving to alleviate the overbought resulting from the strong increases that led the Russell 2000 to reach the objective set at the historical highs of the year 2021 in around the 2,465 points.

“In the short term, I am closely monitoring the lows that the North American indices set in this month of November a couple of weeks ago, such as the 19,900 points of the Nasdaq 100,” explains Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and strategist of ecotrader.

“If we are looking at a simple consolidation prior to a Christmas Rally, those minimums should not be lostwhich also coincide with the M200 of the main technological index,” says the expert, who highlights that there he would be in favor of buying technology again.

The levels to monitor in Europe

The levels to monitor in the case of the Ibex 35 are in the September lows, at 11,138 pointsand the support level to which consolidation could take the index in the worst case scenario is that of 10,900/11,000 pointswhich is where it runs the bullish guideline that has been guiding the increases from the 2022 lows. For its part, in the EuroStoxx 50 the support environment for 4,675/4,700 points It is the one to watch and the biggest risk is that it ends up looking for the August lows around the 4,420/4,480 points.

In this context of approaching the first support levels that the European stock markets face, the market invites us to monitor the behavior of some indices that may give clues about the path that the benchmark indexes in Europe may take, such as the already mentioned EuroStoxx and Ibex.

Eyes in recent hours have focused on the EuroStoxx 50, but in its Total Return version, the one that takes into account the distribution of dividends, which has recently lost the bullish trend that arose from combining the minimums of 2022, 2023 and August 2024. “This movement has opened the door for the main European reference to seek support at the August lows at 10,900, which are still 3.6% away,” explains Joan Cabrero, technical analyst and strategist at Ecotrader who It is doubtful that a reliable upward turn can be seen in continental stock markets. without first that key support and red line be put to the test.

You also have to monitor the behavior of the Dax 40 as one of the selective ones that can give clues to the market about where investors can move in the coming weeks. The German index threatens to confirm a bearish pattern in the form of head and shoulders which would open the door to an additional 4% drop. This pattern would be confirmed if it loses the 18,900 points that, for the moment, are resisting the bearish advance, but which were already tested in Tuesday’s session.

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