Nuclear agreements and global stability
With the major powers entering the arms race again, talking about Ukraine’s military support, the state of alert in the “NATO” countries, and China, Russia, the United States and North Korea making strategic moves, whether in arranging exercises and multiple military maneuvers in anticipation of any ongoing developments in the current crisis tracks The question is renewed: What about the future of international nuclear agreements, especially between the United States and Russia, which govern global stability in light of disciplined approaches since the end of World War II, and continued during and after the Cold War?
There are many scenarios in the event of the disintegration of these international agreements, related to arms control and security arrangements, to which everyone is committed, although some of these countries did not sign each other, while others did not ratify them, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which allowed evasions. Some countries, including Israel, Iran, North Korea and others, allowed many direct paths of action, violating the terms of some of these treaties related to nuclear proliferation, nuclear safety and placing restrictions on the production of nuclear weapons, and imposed restrictions that the IAEA monitored through on-site verification systems.
At the present time, some countries have begun to test their missile capabilities, such as North Korea, and are reconfiguring its small and medium-range nuclear missile system, in addition to testing the contact areas in which they are moving, while the “NATO” countries have worked to monitor what is happening, especially since countries such as France have Its view is about what is going on and threatening the security of the world, and President Macron has previously warned of the repercussions of what is happening if any party resorts to threatening to use nuclear weapons, or deliberately brandishing it, and the countries of the nuclear club are talking about a strategy of deterrence, yet they conduct contrary behavior in the Security Council. The nuclear states have committed themselves not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons, and yet this is happening.
This logic continues in the current conflict system between Ukraine and Russia, especially since the strategic arrangements for the post-military operations stage have not yet begun, which may prompt the adoption of new strategies for some countries, especially the major countries, and fears of entering into the stage of settling conflicts by employing military force, Which will threaten the stability of the global system by entering into a critical stage, and its task is to enter a state of direct chaos, which will threaten the future of international agreements not to use nuclear weapons, or even weapons in areas and hotbeds of current and expected regional and international conflicts.
The real problem is how the world can reach a stage of political stability in light of renewed conflicts in a way that requires a review of all positions and trends that may cause more tension, especially since the international organization governing the paths and trends of the situation and the representative in the United Nations has become unable to prevent clashes, but rather It works according to the whims of some countries. In a state of uncertainty about what is going on, and according to the rule of double standards, which the major countries practice and find justification for them to evade their major obligations, and push them to work in the direction of their interests, we found that the START agreements continued to play their role in the international system, even now despite the existence of conflicts and the atmosphere of the Cold War, which included many countries.
Today, it has become dangerous not to continue the current situation in light of the practices that are taking place that include major countries such as Russia and the United States, and as countries that have a strategic position in their region, such as North Korea and Iran. Let talk about areas free of weapons of mass destruction, dismantling nuclear weapons systems, or freezing chemical and biological production in a specific circle of conflicting calculations and conflicting assessments.
* Academician specializing in strategic affairs and political science.
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