Northern Ireland again provokes tensions between London and Brussels

Tensions resumed this week between London and Brussels over the “Northern Ireland protocol”, created to prevent the return of a physical border on the island of Ireland after Brexit and preserve the 1998 Peace Agreement.

(Does Prince Charles’s speech mark a transition in the monarchy?)

Under the terms of this controversial agreement, the British region of Northern Ireland remains de facto within the single European marketwhich implies carrying out customs controls on goods arriving from the rest of the United Kingdom, a solution that outrages the Northern Irish unionists, attached to their belonging to the British crown.

(The reasons for the resounding no of the EU to renegotiate the ‘brexit’)

What is the Northern Ireland protocol?

The Northern Ireland protocol is one of the main sources of tension between the European Union and the United Kingdom. The latter requires a profound renegotiation. London threatens to unilaterally suspend some provisions, raising fears of a trade war between the former partners.

After months of calm ahead of local elections in Northern Ireland, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson again threatened unilateral action on Tuesday, saying the protocol is “untenable in its current form.”.
Brussels replied its renegotiation “is not an option”.

According to the newspaper The TimesBritish Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is considering taking action next week, including suspending the obligation to inspect goods arriving in the region from the rest of the UK. London also wants the right granted to the EU Court of Justice to supervise its application to be abolished, replacing it with international arbitration.

Opposing views in Northern Ireland

The protocol is also a source of political tension within the British region, between republicans and unionists, who for three decades clashed in a bloody conflict that left more than 3,500 dead.

This new discontent led to several nights of violence in April 2021 and forced the resignation of two Northern Irish unionist prime ministers, Arlene Foster and Paul Givanthe latter in February to express the opposition of his party, the DUP party, to
protocol.

Northern Ireland businesses criticize the paperwork they have to complete to trade with the rest of the UK and call for it to be simplified. But many Northern Irish businessmen applaud the fact that access to the huge European market, vetoed to companies from the island of Great Britain, is maintained open.

Disturbed trade with Great Britain

The protocol is blamed for causing supply difficulties in Northern Ireland, despite the fact that grace periods have been established and extended in customs controls for some products, such as certain chilled meats and medicines.

Difficulties threaten to worsen once its provisions are fully implemented. European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic said Tuesday that Brussels “remains open to discussions” and wants to work with the UK to “provide legal certainty and long-term predictability for Northern Ireland’s citizens and businesses.”

But Truss denounced that the modification proposals made so far by the European Union “They have failed to address the real problems in Northern Ireland and in some cases have made the situation worse.”

What is the cost to Northern Ireland?

According to regional data published in late November by the British Office for National Statistics (ONS), Northern Ireland’s economy is recovering from the effects of the pandemic faster than other parts of the UK.

But the protocol could cost 2.6 percent of the region’s GDP in the long run compared to a no-Brexit scenarioaccording to a recent study by the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow.

The cause is friction in trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. But the study notes that its impact could be moderated by increased trade with the EU.

For the UK as a whole, the long-term cost of Brexit could amount to 4 percent of GDP, according to an estimate by the British government’s public budget forecasting agency.

What is the picture after Sinn Féin’s victory?

The historic victory of the nationalist Sinn Féin in the Northern Irish regional elections It will transform the balance of power in the province, where Brexit has taken its toll on pro-British unionism, and brings the goal of Ireland’s reunification through a referendum a little closer.

One hundred years after the island was partitioned into two jurisdictions, the impact that this change may have on both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is significant, as the Sinn Féin, former political arm of the already inactive IRA, controls the governments of Belfast and Dublin.

And while the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), in the majority for the last 20 years, has failed to deal with the complexities of Brexit and remains determined to link it to the identity politics of the past, with a battle between the British “Union Jack” flag and the Irish tricolor, things do not seem easy for Féin to form a Government.

Precisely, this Wednesday the nationalist Sinn Féin condemned the unionist refusal to form a government in Northern Ireland and assured that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which came second, cannot “punish” the province by refusing to form a power-sharing government.

The leader of the DUP, Jeffrey Donaldson, reiterated that his formation considers rejecting this Friday the election of a new president in the Belfast Assembly, a process that needs the consensus of the unionist and nationalist bloc in the chamber, as established in the peace agreements of 1998.

This would be the first step for the two major parties to later present their candidates for the position of chief minister and deputy minister, as well as the rest of the ministers that will make up the next autonomous Executive according to the results of the elections held last Thursday.

The nationalists described as “unacceptable” the position of Donaldson, who insists that he will not return to the Executive if the talks between London and Brussels do not lead to the elimination of parts of the Brexit protocol for the region.

“I am waiting to see what the UK government has to say. That is now the priority to make sure that what it says will take us in the right direction,” the Unionist leader told BBC Ulster radio.

Donaldson wants London to express unambiguously that it is willing to take unilateral action on the aforementioned protocol if there are no significant advances in the negotiations, a measure that would prolong the institutional crisis in Northern Ireland and unleash a trade war between the United Kingdom and the Union. European (EU).

INTERNATIONAL WRITING