Tomorrow the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in Oslo, in a year marked by the war in Ukraine, its global economic consequences and also the fear, now stronger than ever, of its nuclear escalation. To many, therefore, on this eve it seems obvious that the ongoing conflict in the heart of Europe cannot be ignored in this edition of the Nobel Prizes, even if the process of submitting the nominations officially ended on January 31, so before Vladimir Putin gave the order, on February 24, of invasion.
It is therefore no coincidence that among the favorites there are opponents of Vladimir Putin’s regime and his fellow regimes, such as Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus. According to many who are making predictions in these hours, such as the director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute, Henrik Urdal, among the favorites there are in fact the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Svetlana Tikhanovskayaand the Russian dissident, Alexei Navalnycurrently in prison in Russia after surviving an attempted poisoning in recent years.
“Both have stood out for their criticisms of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – argues Urdal – a Nobel Prize to both would be seen as a clear protest against the Russian invasion and the support it had from Belarus. And the award would represent support. to the democratic and non-violent alternatives to Lukashenko and Putin “.
Then there are also those who, like dozens of politicians who sent a letter to the Norwegian Nobel Committee last March asking to reopen the acceptance of the candidacies, argue that tomorrow in Oslo the prize should go to Volodymyr Zelenskythe Ukrainian president who has been defending Ukraine at all costs since February 24th.
However, there is no shortage of doubts about whether to give recognition for peace now to a president who, even if forced by an invasion, is at the moment in arms. “The war continues and this is a fact”, explains Dan Smith, of the International Institute of Peace Studies in Stockholm, suggesting that “maybe” Zelensky could be a possible candidate in the next few years, if “he can get peace for his country “.
However, the analyst does not rule out that the committee takes the Ukraine factor into account, perhaps giving the IAEA recognition for the efforts it is making to avert a catastrophic accident in Ukrainian nuclear power plants which have now become the scene of the conflict. The international atomic agency was already awarded in 2005, but this would not be an impediment, since for example the International Red Cross has received three Nobel Peace Prizes.
Smith also agrees that an award to anti-Putin and anti-Lukashenko activists would be a strong signal, particularly in Tikhanovskaya, calling the opposition leader who challenged the regime in the 2020 elections “an ally for peace. “. According to observers, the Oslo committee might not focus on the war in Ukraine, but on an equally dramatic topical issue, such as climate and the environment, finally conferring the award on Greta Thunberg, the young Swedish activist who launched the global movement Fridays for future, which in recent years has always been in the shortlist of candidates.
Or attention could turn to violations of the human rights of Chinaawarding the Uighur economist Ilham Tohti, who is serving a life sentence on separatism charges, or Hong Kong activists Agnes Chow and Nathan Law. In all for this year they have been presented 342 nominations, 251 people and 92 organizations. This is the highest number of applications after the record, 376, recorded in 2016.
The winner will receive a prize of 10 million crowns (over 917 thousand euros), usually then donated to the cause for which the winner is fighting. Dmitry Muratov, the Russian journalist awarded last year together with Maria Ressa “for their courageous fight for freedom of expression in Russia and the Philippines”, has also decided to sell the Nobel medal to raise funds for the remaining children. wounded in the war in Ukraine.
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