Kamala Harris consolidates her lead over Donald Trump among Latinos, a key sector of the electorate made up of 36 million people eligible to vote. Almost two months before the presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has a 27-point lead over her Republican rival among Hispanics (58.5% versus 32.4%), according to a survey sponsored by Unidos US, one of the largest Latino organizations in the United States and which in May called on people to vote for Joe Biden. However, the majority of Latinos have not been contacted by either of the two major parties in the final stretch of the campaign leading up to November 5. The contest will be the first or second electoral date for 37% of the community.
The survey It reflects the demographic explosion of Latinos, who have added four million people to the voting rolls since 2020. “It’s a striking number: 37% of Latinos in the electorate are new since Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton faced off in 2016, it’s a fundamentally different group,” said Gary Segura, founder of BSP Research. The company conducted the survey in August with a sample of 3,000 Hispanics in the key territories of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida, Texas and California.
The poll indicates that Harris is ahead of Trump in the swing states that will define the election. The former president improved his popularity among Latinos in 2020, but the voting intention figures revealed this morning put him below the 38% he recorded four years ago. Harris is also marginally below (0.5%) the Latino vote that Joe Biden obtained. 47% of those surveyed believe that the Republican Party does not care about Latinos and 26% perceive that the organization is openly hostile towards Hispanics, compared to 7% who feel the same about Democrats.
Nearly a third of potential voters, 28%, do not trust the parties to fight for them on the issues that concern them most. These are inflation and rising gas prices, housing costs, access to health care and better-paying jobs. Another recent Reuters/Ipsos poll confirms that the Democratic candidate leads Trump on proposals to address these issues, although the margin closes to just 13 points.
Gary Segura points out that economic concerns precede immigration among Hispanics, even in conservative strongholds such as Florida or Texas. Illegal immigration has been pushed to the fifth priority. “There is virtually no support for mass deportations, an issue that has been talked about in the current political climate,” the analyst said. Instead, respondents prefer a path to regularization for those who have lived in the country longer and for the 3.6 million people who have been living in the country for more than 10 years. dreamers who are awaiting a resolution to their legal situation after a wait of more than 20 years. The majority, by a margin of 50%, also oppose banning abortion, regardless of their personal beliefs.
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Warning sign
“Once again, Latinos are sending a warning signal to both parties. Although Republicans have gained some of the support they have lost among Latinos, it is also clear that the party’s priorities and policies are far out of line with the concerns and positions of the majority of the community,” Janet Murgía, president of Unidos US, told a group of journalists. The organization has helped one million people register to vote in 20 years. Unidos US invited Biden to close its annual conference last July, but the president canceled his participation in the Las Vegas meeting after testing positive for coronavirus.
Sixty-four percent of people contacted by the BSP in telephone and online surveys say they will vote in the election, either in person or by mail. Another 15 percent say they are still thinking about it. Even with November 5 fast approaching and a handful of territories still in contention, analysts say most potential voters have not been contacted by either of the two major parties to register to vote.
“We often hear language that is dismissive of Latino participation, that they don’t vote as much as they should, that they can disappoint you when you count on them, but no one addresses the elephant in the room: which is that no one is asking Latinos to go out and vote. 55% of Latinos have not been contacted at the beginning of the end of the campaign,” says Segura. In Florida, a Republican stronghold, the figure is as high as 60%.
Nevada, the most motivated
Contact between the parties seems to be vital in a close election like the one predicted for the fall. This is shown by the case of Nevada, one of the seven states that will define the elections. Potential Hispanic voters have been contacted twice in the last three weeks. 72% of Latinos in the state say they will participate in the election. Enthusiasm is much lower in North Carolina and Georgia, where only 58% and 56%, respectively, have shown interest. 20% of Hispanics in Georgia say they will not vote even though this will be the first or second presidential election for 40% of the electorate.
Keeping a first-time voter energized is key for both parties. The outcome will not only be seen in the presidential election, but in the composition of the new Congress, which will be decisive for whoever occupies the White House from January 2025. Democrats have a 26-point lead over Republicans in the districts that are up for grabs in the House of Representatives, according to the survey published by Unidos US. However, the balance could tip in either direction because 20% are still studying which representative they will vote for.
Polls conducted by Unidos US also place the Democratic Senate candidates among the community’s favorites. The race between Ted Cruz and George Allred in Texas is particularly striking. Cruz, one of the most controversial Republicans in the Upper House, has 31% of voting intention among Latinos, while his Democratic rival has 51%, and there is still 18% who have not decided. The state race, however, is close when white voters are added. In Arizona, Democrat Rubén Gallego leads 55% against 25% for Trumpist Kari Lake. Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida is also lagging behind among Latino voters. The BSP forecast gives him a voting intention of 37% compared to 41% for his rival, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. In this race, however, there are 22% undecided.
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