The IV Rutte cabinet knew in advance that the nitrogen approach in the coalition agreement is “by a long way” not sufficient to achieve its own nitrogen targets. Despite this, the plans were not substantially changed. The target, on the other hand, was tightened even further.
From formation documents and conversations of NRC with those involved, it appears that VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie were warned several times during the formation that the plans in the agreement were not sufficient. This is the conclusion reached by officials who analyzed the consequences of the coalition plans on behalf of the negotiating parties.
The cabinet would only comply with the Nitrogen Act and the granting of permits would not run any risk with extra money and more compelling measures. But instead of changing the approach, the coalition moved the task of reducing nitrogen precipitation to an acceptable level five years forward.
Also read this article: ‘Cabinet approach allows unlimited nitrogen emissions in some places’
‘Make painful decisions now’
During the formation, officials from the ministries of agriculture and finance examined the coalition’s plans, such as a nitrogen fund that would buy out farmers who quit, and concluded that they were not even enough to meet the existing nitrogen target.
That goal, laid down in the Nitrogen Act that was passed last summer, prescribes that nitrogen precipitation must fall to such an extent that 74 percent of the vulnerable Dutch nature will no longer be degraded by nitrogen by 2035.
Such a goal is unattainable with a largely voluntary approach, officials wrote in a first memorandum in October. During the formation of the coalition, the coalition is based on two strategies that were outlined earlier by the Ministries of Agriculture and Finance and which were calculated by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).
But the PBL already calculated that neither strategy reduced nitrogen damage enough, according to the officials.
Only through “a maximum cost-effective buyout strategy” and additional billions would the target be achievable by 2035. With such a strategy, the cabinet would look very specifically in which places the most nitrogen damage occurs – often at dairy farmers next to vulnerable nature areas – and buy out farmers there. Then fewer farmers will be affected, but coercion is needed more often.
The deprivation of farmland is politically very sensitive and arouses a lot of resistance among farmers. Then NRC described last year that expropriation was no longer taboo in the nitrogen strategies of both the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture, the sector reacted with dismay.
The formation table also shows: there is a lot of money available, the goals may even be raised, but expropriation is virtually avoided.
When the informants again ask in November 2021 what choices are possible in the nitrogen file, the response of the officials is even more decisive. The two plans that were calculated by the PBL in September were “nearly enough” to achieve the old goal, they write. Although the plans have now been ‘optimized’, there is still ‘currently no calculated package that achieves this goal’.
The coalition’s plan pays great attention to perspectives for farmers, nature conservation and other environmental goals. But that is simply not enough to achieve the nitrogen target, the officials write. And if the coalition also brings that goal forward, it will mean that the buy-out of farmers “will become even more central”.
Warning: do not move
The officials fear that all these measures will have too little effect, as long as they are voluntary. “There must be a willingness to make painful decisions now,” the officials wrote. “By only having radical measures (such as companies having to stop) clearly identified in, for example, the elaboration of area plans, fundamental choices are pushed forward and it may appear that they are laid down at the local level.”
Once again, the coalition chooses not to fundamentally change the plans, sources say NRCwhile the target is brought forward.
The parties also ignore the warning that it is important not to postpone measures. Implementation is largely in the hands of the provinces. After the central government has established the targets for each province, they must devise plans to ensure that emissions are reduced significantly. The cabinet sees itself primarily as a referee.
Also read this interview: If the nitrogen approach doesn’t work now, this ‘environmental professor’ will stop
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 21, 2022
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