The United Arab Emirates hosts the annual climate summit, known as COP28, from November 30 to December 12 (in principle, because the end of these conferences is always delayed). These are the keys to an event that will be held in the city of Dubai and organized under the umbrella of the United Nations in which fossil fuels will be in the spotlight. Because it is organized by one of the main oil and gas producing nations and because it is expected that there will be a call to abandon this way of producing energy.
1. What is a COP? The acronym COP in English refers to the Conference of the Parties. That is, to the meeting—normally annual—of the almost 200 countries that are part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The convention was adopted in 1992 and established that the greenhouse gases emitted by humans in their daily activities are behind climate change. The convention also established that the signatories must reduce these gases. To develop this treaty, COPs are held, in which delegates and ministers from almost 200 countries in the world participate. The first COP was in Berlin in 1995 and the one that now begins in Dubai is number 28.
2. Why is the COP held in an oil country? All countries in the world participate in climate negotiations, from the largest to the smallest, also those whose economy depends on fossil fuels, as is the case of the Emirates (29% of its income is linked to oil and gas ). Each year the summit is held in a region of the planet and in 2023 it was Asia’s turn. The United Arab Emirates applied and the countries in the region accepted it. Then, the rest of the nations participating in the climate talks also accepted it. Many environmental groups have also criticized that the president of this summit – whose designation corresponds to the host country and who is expected to be supported by the nations at the opening of the summit – is Sultan al Jaber, who in addition to being the Minister of Energy is the advisor delegate of ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company), the eighth largest oil company in the world.
3. What is the Paris Agreement? The framework convention served to approve the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Then, in 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted, which obliges all countries that join the pact to undertake greenhouse gas cuts. The sum of all these reductions must be sufficient to meet the main objective: that the increase in the average temperature of the planet at the end of the century does not exceed two degrees Celsius with respect to pre-industrial levels and, to the extent possible, not exceed 1.5. That is the limit that science establishes to avoid the most catastrophic effects of a situation that at this time cannot be reversed. The planet is already warming by about 1.2 degrees.
4. Is the world on track to comply with the Paris Agreement? No. Scientific studies—led by the IPCC, the group of experts that advise the United Nations—and the different organizations linked to the UN warn that countries are not on track to meet these Paris goals. Although progress has been made since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, current plans lead to a temperature increase of between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees because the cuts in greenhouse gases are insufficient. The concentration of these gases in the atmosphere has not stopped increasing and in 2022 they have once again set another record. This has already caused damage that will be “irreversible” for “centuries or millennia” and leads to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, as the IPCC has established in its latest major review of climate science. This study warns that climate change is “a threat to human well-being and the health of the planet” and the “window of opportunity” that humanity has to ensure “a habitable and sustainable future for all” is “rapidly closing.” This means that with each year that passes without emissions falling rapidly, it is much more difficult to meet the 1.5 degree goal.
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5. What are NDCs? The Nationally Determined Contribution, better known in the jargon of climate negotiations by its acronym NDC, are the emissions cutting plans to which the signatory nations of the Paris Agreement commit. The current NDC proposes cuts until 2030 and they are insufficient (they lead to warming of between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees). At COP28 the first official assessment of the efforts since the entry into force of the Paris Agreement must be carried out. Knowing where climate plans are at should serve, among other things, to prepare the next round of national plans. The new NDCs will be presented in 2025 and will cover until 2035. And what the most ambitious countries are looking for in the fight against climate change is for the balance sheet to already establish the measures that must be adopted so that warming remains within the limits. safety limits.
6. Why are fossil fuels in the spotlight? Coal, oil and gas are mainly responsible for climate change, as they are the largest source of greenhouse gases. That is why science establishes that the world must get rid of these fuels. The main alternative is renewables. And a mandate is expected to emerge from COP28 to triple renewable power in the world, which means going from 3,400 gigawatts (GW) in 2022 to around 11,000 in 2030. But it is not enough to triple renewables, too. efficiency rates need to be doubled (consume less energy) and, above all, a clear path to abandoning all fossil fuels must be outlined. Getting a robust call for this abandonment, which could be included in the balance sheet, would be a signal for nations to later also include it in their climate plans.
7. What are carbon capture and offsets? For most experts, it is a residual solution that should be used only in processes (for example, industrial) in which there is almost no alternative to eliminate their emissions, mainly carbon dioxide. For the fossil industry it is a back door through which to continue extracting and selling coal, oil and gas. Capture and storage, an expensive and rarely used technique, consists of capturing a facility’s emissions and retaining them so that they do not end up in the atmosphere. Added to this are emissions offsets with, for example, forests. In both cases the problem is not attacked at its roots. In climate jargon, when talking about phasing out fossil fuels “without abatement” —unabatedin English—that uncertain door to capture and storage is being left open.
8. Who are the main emitters of greenhouse gases? According to official UN data, in 2021 China was the main emitter of greenhouse gases, with 30% of the world total. They are followed at a great distance by the US (11%), India (7%), the EU (7%) and Russia (5%). But if we look at historical responsibilities, things change somewhat. If all emissions accumulated between 1850 and 2021 are taken as a reference, the United States is the first, with 17%. They are followed in this ranking by China (12%), the EU (10%), Russia (6%) and India (5%).
9. What else can you expect from the Dubai summit? It is clear that the responsibilities for the climate crisis must be found in the G-20. Paradoxically, others are the most affected. Many of the most vulnerable countries are precisely those least responsible for this crisis and also have the least capacity to deal with its effects. At the previous summit, held in the Egyptian city of Sharm, a commitment was made to create a loss and damage fund to compensate the most vulnerable countries. And this fund should come out of the Dubai summit, to which not only developed countries are expected to contribute.
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