Thomas Graham, Russia expert at the Council of Foreign Relations, talks about the effect of sanctions, what they mean for NATO and the consequences for Russia.
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What effect will the new sanctions announced by the West to punish Russia have?
Not much, at least in the short term. Since the first round of sanctions against Russia over the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Moscow has taken steps to shield its economy from such sanctions. It has amassed reserves of more than US$600 billion and another US$200 billion in a state fund that will help mitigate sanctions.
It has also been very aggressive in controlling the internal opposition to limit protests when the sanctions begin to be felt among the population. Unfortunately, the suspension of the Nord Stream 2 project may have the opposite effect, as it motivates Russia to penetrate deeper into Ukraine to control the gas pipelines that supply and pass through Europe. Also, since 40 percent of the gas Europe consumes comes from Russia, Moscow still has a lot of influence even without Nord Stream 2.
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Is the path of diplomacy to solve the crisis closed?
It has been reduced considerably, but not completely. to break the impasse Washington would have to accept that the issue of NATO’s expansion to the east be put on the table, something they have categorically refused. But the chances of that happening are slim, as it would set off a political firestorm in the US and rifts with allies. The public diplomacy that we have seen these days will not stop the crisis. It is private diplomacy that has the best chance of succeeding.
How does this affect NATO and the security of Europe?
The deployment of troops to countries such as Poland and the Baltic nations of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia and the commitment to collective defense give these allies peace of mind. It will most likely prevent Russia from advancing on them.
The greatest risk they run, like Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, is the flow of refugees that could exceed five million if there is a total invasion of Ukraine. A challenge that comes just at a time when these countries are still suffering from the economic impact of covid-19. Something that Russia is interested in because it causes chaos and instability.
Seen more broadly, this Russian aggression seriously upsets the concepts of security both for Europe and globally. Many will have to increase their defense and military spending and any peace will be fragile on the assumption that Putin is willing to use war as a tool to defend what he calls his area of influence.
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What are the risks for Russia?
If Moscow’s actions have achieved anything, it is to unify and strengthen NATO, which was in the doldrums and is now returning to its initial purpose, which was to contain Russia. Her behavior, in addition, could push other countries such as Finland and Sweden to want to join the alliance.
(Also read: Russian Army approaches Kiev to ‘behead’ the government, according to the US)
It also generates conflict with China, because although Beijing supports the Russian position on the expansion of NATO and European security, it does not agree with the intervention and attack on the sovereignty of another country. Above all because China wants to continue expanding its commercial and technological ties with Europe and other countries and for that an alliance with an aggressive Russia does not suit it.
In addition, a prolonged conflict could undermine the Russian economy and undermine its popular support, which will also suffer as the death toll increases and the rich are deprived of capital they have abroad.
(Also read: These are the countries that support Russia and Ukraine’s allies)
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
WEATHER CORRESPONDENT IN WASHINGTON (USA)
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