Several years ago, the Buenos aires city it ceased to be the second district with the highest electoral weight in the country. Córdoba and Santa Fe surpassed it. However, the resonance of the Buenos Aires elections remained intact and that is why the eyes continue to settle particularly here, one step – or several in reality – behind the insurmountable Buenos Aires battle. That is why the Capital is also generating its own poll war. And this thursday Clarion accessed a new study, which measured the main fronts and five potential candidates.
The survey, of 820 cases relieved in the City between February 25 and 28, is CIGP (Image and Political Management Consultant), a small firm that has been spreading its forecasts for the national and some local elections. Like all, for the presidential 2019 it was very far with its numbers.
The report begins with a summary of the results, where it focuses precisely on the electoral issue. Says so:
– “The first relevant data we obtained is that Together for Change continue as the main force policy chosen by the porteños (Four. Five%) while in second place with a difference of 18 points it is positioned Front of All (27%). The other forces are below 6% “.
– “In CABA, polarization is maintained between the two main fronts. However, in sum; the ‘Don’t Know / No Answer’ and ‘None’ represent the 18% of those consulted. This mass of citizens is composed mostly of people from between 30 to 49 years, mostly private and professional employees, who have a certain disbelief in politics or a lack of interest in it, in general, we can categorize them as apolitical “.
– “This does not mean that your vote is translated into blank and contested votes, in most cases, they lean towards some last minute option. That is, they do not have a rigid and predetermined political orientation, but rather a temporary vote. In this sense, they are also seen as undecided, this is the sector with the highest volatility and to which the candidates point (or should point) their attention “.
– “However, perhaps the most important data is that 5% of those who voted for Together for Change, now they elect the Libertarian party, Avanza Libertad, by José Luis Espert and Javier Milei. Their voters come, 56% from Juntos por el Cambio, 12% who define themselves as apolitical or undecided, 6% from Federal Consensus and the remaining percentage refers to an electorate that maintains its election. “
In the compared to 2019, can be taken two ways. On the one hand, if the definitive scrutiny of the October presidential election is taken in the City, 45% represents a drop of about 7 and a half points for Together for Change (52.6%); and 27%, a drop of 8.5 for the Frente de Todos (35.5%).
However, if the analysis is against what the same respondents say they voted in that election, Together for Change drops 9 points (54% of those consulted by CIGP claim to have elected Macri in the last presidential election) and the Frente de Todos maintains its percentage (27% of those surveyed claim to have favored the Fernandezes).
Numbers of five potential candidates
In addition to this panning for alliances, the firm asked about the “composition of the vote” of five leaders: two of JxC (Patricia bullrich Y Fernan Quirós), one of the FdT (Leandro santoro) and two liberals (Jose Luis Espert Y Javier Milei). Do you have “hard” and “soft” voters? “Possible” voters? “Difficult” and “impossible” voters?
Taking “hard” support as the strongest parameter, they were ordered as follows:
1) Bullrich: 41% hard voter, 5% soft, 22% possible and 32% difficult or impossible.
two) Quiros: 32% hard voter, 11% soft, 51% possible and 6% difficult or impossible.
3) Santoro: 16% hard voter, 20% soft, 43% possible and 21% difficult or impossible.
4) Milei: 5% hard voter, 2% soft, 38% possible and 55% difficult or impossible.
5) Espert: 5% hard voter, 1% soft, 52% possible and 42% difficult or impossible.
In the case of Together for Change, it is interesting the Bullrich-Quirós comparison: The former Minister of Security of the Nation has a worse image than the Buenos Aires Minister of Health, and even more electoral rejection, but would guarantee a more hard vote.
In the case of the Frente de Todos, Santoro still seems a leader with little level of knowledge to head the national ballot. With a hard Kirchner profile, he sounds strong rather to renew in the local Legislature. Who one sector of La Rosada wants for the first section is a Matias Lammens, for his good performance for head of Government in 2019. But in this survey he was not evaluated.
And as for the liberals, Espert would be inclined this time by a Buenosairean candidacy. Milei does aspire to a Buenos Aires bank, where she could have to compete internally with the wishes of the ally Ricardo Lopez Murphy.
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