The dispersion of numbers in the Buenos Aires province, facing the STEP 2021, brings surprises almost hour by hour. Not only in the fight above, between the Front of All and Together for Change, but in the competition of the “rest”. Now, a new study (in which the ruling party appears first) locates Florencio Randazzo close to double digits, ya Guillermo Moreno and Nicolas del Caño above Jose Luis Espert.
The survey that brings these news is from Circuits, a small consultant, specialized in the Buenos Aires territory. Its clients are some municipalities in the interior of the Province and its works usually circulate in sectors K and on the left.
The last survey, between August 24 and 28, included 1,533 cases. And the report, before entering the electoral field, shows some data on the political, economic and social situation of the district.
Axel Kicillof and Alberto Fernández in an act in Lomas de Zamora. The governor’s management is a little more valued than that of the President.
– Most consider the current situation of the country between “bad” (24.4%) and “very bad” (32.9%).
– 29.6% believe that the main problem in the country is “price increases”, 20.3% “corruption” and 15.9% “unemployment”.
– 52.6% consider that the economic situation in the coming months will “get worse” against only 26.4% who believe that it will improve.
– 51.3% rate the national management negatively (21.9% “bad” and 29.3% “very bad”) against 32.9% who see it as good (20.8% “very good” and 12, 1% “good”).
– Provincial management fares little better: + 36.5% (18.9% “very good” and 17.6% “good”) and – 50% (19.6% “bad” and 30.4% “Very bad”).
In the second section of the study, Circuits gets into it electoral scenario. First, he repeats a question that he has been asking since before the closing of lists and that today can be taken as the general voting intention: “With which of the following spaces do you feel represented?”.
And there The Front of All predominates, with Victoria Tolosa Paz as the main reference / candidate. Sum 33.5%, against 26.7% from Together for Change, which leads as figures to Diego Santilli and Facundo Manes.
Of the studies known this month and that Clarín was publishing, half showed the ruling party above and the other half the combined ballots of Together for Change. Except for two, they tied. That is, a very large dispersion, just a few days from the primaries.
What seems clear, or at least where there is unanimity in the polls, is that the Frente de Todos is very far from repeating the difference that he took out in Province in 2019, both in the PASO and in the general, for President and for Governor.
Florencio Randazzo at the Gustó pizzeria, owned by General Rodríguez. In a survey it appears third, around 10 points.
In the numbers Circuits, with 6.1% of undecided, 7.9% of “other” and 3.6% of “none”, below the crack (light) comes Let’s go with you (Randazzo), with interesting 9.1%. And, unlike the rest of the polls, then the Espert libertarians (which are only sixth, with 2.4%), but the Left Front (Del Caño) with 5.9%, and Principles and Values (Moreno) with 4.8%.
Facundo Manes and Diego Santilli. The former Buenos Aires deputy chief, up in the JxC intern in the Province.
Then, the study raises numbers of the two interns Buenos Aires: within Together, Santilli clearly beats Manes (65.9% to 23.9%, with 10.2% not knowing); and within the FIT, Del Caño beats Alejandro Bodart even more comfortably (74.2% to 9.4%, with 16.4% not knowing).
For Pablo Romá, the analyst who directs the consultancy, “the photo today shows the two hard nuclei of the majority forces, which would allow the growth of other minor forces, like those of Randazzo, Moreno or Del Caño “.
Two scenarios, with Santilli or Manes
At the end, the poll raises two scenarios, thinking about the general election in October, and measure Santilli and Manes separately. Again, the former Buenos Aires deputy chief is doing better than the radical neurosurgeon.
At scenario 1, with Santilli at the top of the list, the Frente de Todos is 5.5 points up: 33.7% Tolosa Paz against 28.2% of JxC. They complete: Randazzo 9.3%, Del Caño 5.8%, Moreno 5.6%, Espert 3.3%, another 4.9% and does not know 9.2%.
At scenario 2, with Manes head of list, the Frente de Todos increases the gap to almost 10 points: 33.1% Tolosa Paz against 23.6% of JxC. That is, the ruling party remains, but the main opposition variant falls. And with that drop, the “rest” grows: Randazzo 9.6%, Del Caño 6.4%, Moreno 6.3%, Espert 4.1%, another 9.1% and does not know 7.8%.