Polls for the US election are expected to provide trends for the election results in November. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump should celebrate too soon.
Washington, DC – The election campaign for the 2024 US presidential election is in full swing. Just last week, the televised debate between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent Donald Trump took place. This event also seems to have influenced the poll results. But one thing remains certain: the race is still extremely close.
“Upswing” for Harris: Polls show improvement after TV debate
Harris was able to extend her lead in the national polls to 2.9 percentage points. Before the debate last week, her lead was 2.2 percentage points ahead of Trump, as pollster Nate Silver reported on his blog Silver Bulletin reported. “One could argue – one could argue! – that this is even a little conservative,” Silver wrote on Tuesday (September 17). According to some recent polls, Harris has been able to gain a clearer lead over Trump in recent days.
The improved poll results have also noticeably increased Harris’ chances in the electoral college – that is, the number of electoral votes she could win by winning states. According to Silver, her probability of achieving a majority in the electoral college was 38.4 percent on the day of the debate. This has now risen to 43.5 percent. In contrast, Trump’s chances have fallen: before the debate, the former president had a 61.3 percent chance of achieving the necessary 270 electoral votes; now it is 56.2 percent.
Silver noted that the Electoral College split is gradually moving back “toward 50/50.” Despite Harris’ “national surge,” however, the pollster warned that there is still a lack of high-quality polling in individual states.
Polls in US election: close race between Harris and Trump
The poll numbers from individual states are also giving Harris cause for celebration. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom published a poll conducted by Selzer & Co. that shows Trump in Iowa with 47 percent compared to 43 percent for Harris – a result that is within the margin of error. Iowa is a state that Trump won comfortably in his two previous presidential elections. Although Iowa, according to CNN does not play a decisive role in the November election, close poll numbers in a traditionally Republican state are an encouraging signal for Harris, especially in view of the neighboring swing state of Wisconsin, which has a similar population structure.
In the polls conducted by Marquette University, CBS News/YouGov and CNN/SSRS, Harris is four percentage points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin on average. Trump could still catch up with this lead. Nevertheless, these results show that Harris also has a chance in other important swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. These results are significantly more favorable than in the last Selzer poll in June, when Joe Biden was still in the race. At that time, Trump was leading by 18 points.
US election 2024: Race for US presidency is not yet decided
However, it remains to be seen how the poll numbers will develop until the election. These surveys were conducted before the second assassination attempt on the former president. The impact of this incident and the reactions of Trump, Harris and other political actors have not yet been taken into account in the polls. Ultimately, rhetoric, blame-shifting and the shifting of issues could have a significant impact on the election result. (hk)
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