Since the presidential campaign, the consulting firm CEOP Latam works for Alberto Fernandez. And it was its director, Roberto Bacman, one of the first to make it known that the formula of the Frente de Todos would be imposed by a wide margin in the PASO, when the voting tables had only been open for a few hours. Accuracy or luck? Anyway, the same pollster -who had erred in other forecasts- continued to be linked to the president and days ago released a I study in the city. That curiously Fernández is bad at it, but good at the Frente de Todos and some of his Buenos Aires pre-candidates.
Clarion He accessed this survey on Wednesday, which circulates in La Rosada and in different offices of the Buenos Aires ruling party. The survey, of 956 cases, was done last month but the report was presented on the 15th of this month. The results have a +/- 3.23% margin of error.
From the outset, the report shells general information on the situation and the image of different leaders. The sum gives a complex scenario for the Government / Front of All in the district.
– 41.8% feel “uncertainty” and 25.9% “anger” about the current situation.
– 29.9% are pro-government and 55.8% opposition to the national government.
– 52.3% choose “inflation + economy” as their main concern and 37.2%, the “lack of work”.
CEOP Latam survey in CABA. The image of the President.
CEOP Latam survey in CABA. The image of the head of Government.
– Fernández’s assessment has a clear balance against in CABA: 37.5% positive and 60.3% negative.
– The evaluation of the management of the national government gives it even worse: + 35.7% and – 63%.
– As priorities, respondents ask the President to “direct the economy” (58.3%), “defeat inflation” (40.3%) and “improve security” (27.8%).
– In contrast, the numbers of Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and his Buenos Aires administration are positive: + 65.9% and – 32.9% the image of the head of Government; and + 67.2% and – 31.7% its administration.
The electoral scene
So far, the numbers of CEOP They are coinciding with other CABA polls. However, when he gets into the electoral field, the gap he shows in favor of Together for Change is much shorter than those of other polls.
The consulting firm raises a first scenario by spaces. And there, JxC is less than five points higher than the FdT: 32.4% to 27.8%. The rest of the polls give you two digits of difference. What is the last parameter? In October 2019, Macri-Pichetto took 17 points from Fernández and Larreta, about 20 from Matías Lammens.
In the CEOP table, the libertarians of third parties appear, with very good 12 points. And they complete:
CEOP Latam survey in CABA. Voting intention by space.
– Let’s go with you (Randazzo-Telerman) 1.7%.
– FIT (Myriam Bregman) 1.5%.
– Others 7.7%.
– Blank / Will not vote 6.9%.
– Ns / Nc 10%.
Then, four scenarios are presented with candidates, where the names of the candidates are repeated. Maria Eugenia Vidal (Together for Change), Javier Milei (Libertarians), Myriam Bregman (FIT) and Jorge Telerman (PJ not K), but the offer of the Frente de Todos is changing.
CEOP Latam survey in CABA. Voting intention of the pre-candidates.
Vidal ranges between 34.8% and 36.2% (always first), Milei between 10.2% and 13.7% (three third and one second place), Bregman between 3.5% and 8.3%, (always fourth) and Telerman between 1.7% and 3.3% ( always fifth). The “other” option ranges from 9.4% to 13.6% and the undecided, from 10.4% to 16.7%.
The variants of the FdT include three females: Gisela Marziotta (close to the trade unionist Víctor Santa María, strong man of the Buenos Aires PJ), Maria Rosa Muiños (partner of Juan Manuel Olmos, an official of Alberto Fernández and also with experience in Peronism in CABA) and Cecilia Nicolini (Presidential adviser on Health and high profile for the pandemic). The fourth is the radical K Leandro santoro, supported by the President to lead.
The one who measures the best is Santoro: with 24.8%, he is 11.7 points behind Vidal (35.9%). They are followed by Marziotta, the journalist who renews banking and could support him (21.9%, to 14.3 from Vidal); Nicolini (18.8%, 16 from Vidal); and last Muiños, with only 13.1%, 22.2 behind Vidal and even below Milei (13.7%).