New Caledonia will vote for the third time on December 12 in a referendum on its independence. This long-awaited vote will close a chapter in the history of the overseas community. However, the disagreements between the independentists and those in favor of maintaining French sovereignty, as well as the irruption of a wave of Covid-19 on the island, complicate the conduct of this scrutiny.
More than 185,000 New Caledonian voters will have to respond again on Sunday, December 12, to the question: “Do you want New Caledonia to access full sovereignty and become independent?”
This third and final referendum on self-determination is being held in a turbulent context, due to disagreements between supporters of independence and loyalists.
Among the points of contention is the date of the elections, which was agreed in June after discussions between loyalists, independentists and representatives of the French state in Paris. “The exchanges showed that there was a form of urgency to work the day after. The general interest demanded that this consultation of the referendum be carried out as soon as possible”, the French Minister of Overseas Territories, Sébastien Lecornu, had affirmed to justify the choice of this date limit. But the decision has no consensus: although it suits the loyalists, who wanted to act as quickly as possible, it does not satisfy the independentists, who would have wanted a referendum in September 2022 to have time to prepare.
Last Tuesday, the Council of State rejected the request of a group of citizens to postpone the referendum, considering that the health context “was not an obstacle” for the development of the vote.
In early September, the Covid-19 pandemic hit New Caledonia, which had previously been largely unaffected. A lockdown was declared and the hospital sector came under great pressure. The epidemic wave, which began on September 6, caused 279 deaths, but now the numbers are on the decline, with an incidence rate of less than 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
For the independentistas, the pandemic “prevents a fair campaign from being carried out.” Therefore, they ask that the consultation be postponed to respect the mourning period of the Kanak people. This indigenous people, the Kanaks, represent 41% of the population of New Caledonia and correspond to the first inhabitants of the country, unlike the descendants of the white settlers, the Caldoches. Today, most of the independentistas are Kanaks, but not all Kanaks are independentistas. Marginalized for years, especially during colonization, the Kanaks developed a strong cultural identity.
The time of mourning in the Kanak country is not a time for politics
“There is a real problem of cultural management of the dead (of the pandemic) that must be buried according to the usual local rites” in the Canaan culture, explained an anthropologist and researcher at the National Center for Scientific Research, Benoît Trépied to France 24, “When someone dies, there are great traditional exchanges, gifts and great family mobilizations (…) as long as these rituals are not practiced, it is extremely difficult (for the Kanaks) to move on and people remain in a state of withdrawal. mourning in New Caledonia, in the Kanak country, is not a time for politics “, explains the researcher.
Furthermore, “the Kanak and oceanic communities settled in New Caledonia are greatly affected by Covid-19 because they are the least favored socially and those with the least access to health care,” Sarah Mohamed-Gaillard, professor, explained to France 24. in contemporary history of Inalco and specialist in the history of Oceania.
In this context, the pro-independence parties declared that “this referendum will be politically illegitimate” and that its result “cannot constitute a basis for discussion.” For this reason, they called on the New Caledonians not to participate in the consultation. They also warned that they would not recognize the result and would report it to the United Nations.
This “boycott” changes the landscape: in the last two referendums, all political parties called to vote. In previous referendums, New Caledonians went to the polls in droves: in 2020, for example, turnout exceeded 85%.
“The future of New Caledonia cannot be decided without the participation of the Kanaks, the original people,” says Sarah Mohamed-Gaillard. The teacher-researcher also points out that this “self-determination referendum is not open to all people living in New Caledonia, but to New Caledonians, that is, to people who appear on a restricted reference list.”
For his part, Benoît Trépied points out “a paradoxical situation” with “a self-determination referendum in which the vast majority of the Kanaks, who represent the colonized people, do not pronounce on this question of sovereignty, which is political nonsense” . On Tuesday, Sébastien Lecornu also called for “massive participation in these elections”, which was belittled by the pro-independence parties, because “the results will prevail”, and “no one owns anyone’s votes.”
A future through dialogue
The third referendum is a decisive stage for New Caledonia. This will have to put an end to a political situation pending for 40 years and the process of decolonization of New Caledonia. The third referendum must put an end to the Noumea Accord, signed on May 5, 1998, ten years after the Matignon Accords, concluded to put an end to the conflict between the loyalists and the independentistas.
The Noumea Agreement established consultations to transfer certain competencies from France to New Caledonia. According to the text, “if the answer remains negative (after three referendums), the political partners will meet to examine the situation thus created.”
In the last two referendums, the “No” won with 56.67% of the votes in 2018 and 53% in 2020. But the difference between supporters and opponents of independence was significantly reduced in the second referendum, compared to first.
As for Sunday’s consultation, “if the consensus dynamic, with a global call for all citizens to vote on this issue, had remained in good condition (…) surely there would have been a very small difference” between the number “No” and “Yes” supporters, Benoît Trépied points out. According to him, this situation would have been “the best way to continue the dialogue and find a compromise.”
“The challenge will be to renew the dialogue as of December 13. This dialogue must take place between the independentists and the non-independentists, but also with the French State, because the State is the third partner of the Matignon agreements and must arbitrate between both sides, “agrees Sarah Mohamed-Gaillard.
“After the last self-determination consultation, the State, which has the role and the historical responsibility, will take the initiative of the dialogue for the 18-month transition period that will open then,” Emmanuel Macron had declared on November 18 before Congress. of Mayors of France.
The French State published a document entitled “the consequences of yes and no”, which is intended to be a working basis. But arguing that it is “contrary to independence,” the Canaco and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), which groups together the pro-independence parties, rejected the document. Long discussions are still expected and the matter is far from over …
This article was adapted from its original in French
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