There is a terrorist threat from right-wing extremist or jihadist quarters in the Netherlands, but there are no concrete signs that an attack is imminent. The National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV) therefore maintains the threat level at 3 out of 5, according to an analysis published on Tuesday. According to the NCTV, it remains “imaginable” that terrorists threaten national security with a terrorist attack. This threat mainly comes from jihadists and right-wing extremist young people who express themselves online in international forums.
The researchers write that a possible attack from the right-wing extremist angle is based on the involvement of “young Dutch men in international, online accelerationist networks”. The NCTV describes accelerationism as a “right-wing extremist ideology” circulating on online platforms. Its supporters “glorify and justify terrorist violence in order to accelerate a race war,” the researchers said. In the Netherlands, this would be a group of a few hundred young people aged twelve to twenty years who are often active online and who are out for chaos in society and ultimately strive for a ‘white (national socialist) ethno-state’.
The NCTV considers the jihadist threat the “greatest terrorist threat”. The researchers speak of a fragmented movement, “both socially and ideologically”. As a result, there is division and “hardly any mobilization or growth of the movement.” As an example of potential danger, the NCTV cites detainees jailed for involvement with Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq. The researchers also mention the arrests of nine suspects in Eindhoven last month. According to justice, these nine would support IS and are training for a possible attack.
On Tuesday, outgoing ministers Sander Dekker (Legal Protection, VVD) and Ferd Grapperhaus (Justice and Security, CDA) wrote to the House of Representatives that 5 percent of convicted terrorists after their release being convicted again of a terrorist offence. A larger group – about 25 percent – of the ex-prisoners in the terrorism department commit another crime, but not with terrorist intent. The researchers analyzed the period between 2006 and 2020. During that period, 180 inmates were released after being convicted of a terrorist crime.
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