In the United States, the requirement for unanimity in the Senate enables the ratification of Finland’s NATO membership to be postponed beyond the congressional summer recess.
Finland and the postponement of the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership in the United States is a possible scenario, but it will hardly have an impact on the outcome of the membership process, estimates a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Charly Salonius-Pasternak.
In the US Senate, both Republicans and Democrats have expressed their support for the urgent ratification of Finland’s and Sweden’s membership before the recess starting on August 5. This would require a yes vote from each of the 100 representatives in the Senate.
On Wednesday, the online newspaper Politico reported that Kentucky’s Republican senator Rand Paul wants the Senate to vote on an amendment to the ratification treaty that would require the military alliance NATO’s Article 5 security guarantees to require Congress to declare war. If Paul implements his plan, the processing of the case will be postponed by at least a month.
Read more: Lehti: The US senator is trying to delay the quick ratification of Finland’s NATO membership
“Even then, the United States probably won’t be the last ratifier,” says Salonius-Pasternak.
The US system allows even individual representatives to delay bills. It is not surprising that these opportunities are also taken advantage of.
of the United States researcher specializing in politics Jani Kokko The University of Jyväskylä says that if the ratification process in the US is delayed, it will send a special signal to Finland.
Several US politicians have promised Finland and Sweden a quick ratification process.
“But nothing irreversible will happen. In the United States, it tends to be that if you want to declare something urgent and move it forward, opposing points of view quickly arise, which slow things down,” says Kokko.
If the ratification ends up going through the usual legislative process, it needs a two-thirds majority in the Senate. That amount should be easily exceeded in light of the current signs.
“It will not change the outcome that the Senate will ratify Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership within the next couple of months,” says Salonius-Pasternak.
The size according to which a quick ratification in the United States could create pressure on the NATO member states that have not yet done so.
“The United States sees that Finland and Sweden are capable allies who bring a lot of added value to NATO’s operations. Of course they want the matter handled as quickly as possible, especially in this world political situation,” says Kokko.
Salonius-Pasternak does not believe that the U.S. ratification schedule will ultimately have a major impact on the processes of other member states.
The United States has made its position regarding Finland and Sweden clear, and the other member states know it. According to him, the possible parliamentary elections in Italy at the moment are, for example, question marks, Viktor Orbán led by Hungary and Turkey.
“I don’t see that they have any relevance to whether the USA has ratified or not. You can actually think that in some situations it is even useful to show that now we don’t just dance to the tune of the USA,” Salonius-Pasternak assesses.
Salonius-Pasternak in my opinion, the prolongation of the process might even become a necessary reminder that there are other kinds of opinions in the United States, even though there is broad support for the membership of Finland and Sweden in the Senate.
“It’s a broader question of what to commit to. What is the world of thought of the Republican Party, Trump’s supporters or others?”, Salonius-Pasternak ponders.
Republican Senator Paul wants an amendment to the ratification treaty emphasizing that only the US Congress can declare war, even if it is an attack on NATO. As it stands, Article 5 means in practice that an attack on one member country is an attack on all NATO countries, and the others must defend the attacked country.
“And this is by no means just his idea. None. So you can see the benefit of this situation for Finns as well. A reminder that it is a big country and there are many different views on these issues,” says Salonius-Pasternak.
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