NATO | Should Finland be tough on Turkey or please Erdoğan? In this way, experts assess the options for the NATO process

According to the experts interviewed, the United States is the most likely solution to Finland’s NATO membership, but Finland can also actively promote the process itself.

Finland and there is currently no solution to the problem of Turkey, which is currently blocking Sweden’s NATO membership, and the application process seems to be well under way.

Turkey has demanded that Finland and Sweden lift restrictions on arms exports to Turkey if they wish to become members of NATO. In addition, Sweden and Finland should take concrete action against organizations that Turkey considers to be terrorist groups and a security threat to its country.

“We have been surprised by Turkey’s view, but there is a tendency in international politics to take seriously what opponents are saying. It is hoped that a satisfactory solution will be found in the end, ”said the President of the Republic Sauli Niinistö said the Secretary General of NATO on Sunday Jens Stoltenberg with them at the press conference.

HS asked the experts what else Finland could do to promote its NATO membership.

NATO expert Iro Särkkä from the University of Helsinki.

The path of diplomacy

Finland the room for maneuver to promote its NATO application is very small, says a NATO expert Iro Särkkä From the University of Helsinki.

According to him, Finland must now show its interest and understanding in Turkey’s concerns, even though the countries’ perceptions of terrorism, for example, may differ and Finland cannot, of course, start extraditing people in violation of human rights.

“The more question, however, is that Turkey wants attention for itself and gets its own interests through. Finland can only help by listening and seeking a conciliatory approach, because in the final games the solution to the situation will come from somewhere else, ”he says.

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The director of the Nordic West Office think tank follows the same lines Risto EJ Penttilä, according to which Finland must find out how we can continue the dialogue and respond to Turkey ‘s demands as well as possible. He also said that discussions with all potential NATO countries were needed.

“So far, this has been Finland’s main line, which is quite functional, as long as it does not go too far in keeping up with Turkey.”

Risto EJ Penttilä, Director of the Nordic West Office.

Strengthening Nordic co – operation

Penttilän According to Finland, Sweden should strive to play a long-term game and actively build an image of the Nordic countries’ strong role in the NATO of the future.

According to him, the security of the countries is already largely guaranteed, as the large NATO countries have expressed their support for them, so now it would be worthwhile to strategically build both the NATO and the European Union a Nordic bloc, the new Kalmar Union.

“We should show that together we bring significant added value to NATO in many different ways. We make sure that the northern region remains stable and that democracy plays, ”says Penttilä.

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Experts do not see that Finland should now make a distinction with Sweden, which, for example, is somewhat more affected by Finland’s terrorist concerns than Turkey.

“It’s not completely ruled out, but I think it’s the very last and unlikely option. Yes, it would cause a rift in the relations between our countries, ”says Särkkä.

The role of the United States

Both According to the experts interviewed, the most likely solution to Finland’s NATO membership is the United States, which could make some concessions to Turkey, for example, in connection with arms procurement.

However, according to Penttilä, Finland should work actively for diplomatic work to ensure that both Democrats and Republicans are in favor of Finland’s and Sweden’s membership of NATO before the NATO meeting in Madrid at the end of June and at the latest before the US mid-term elections.

“There is no terrible desire in Congress that now that it has been vigorously opposed to one dictator, it is given to another. Now Finnish diplomats should make another round in favor of Finland’s NATO membership, because if the application stretches over the election, the difficulty factor will increase considerably, ”says Penttilä.

“Now we must not send any message to the United States that it is exactly the same for us, even if the membership process drags on.”

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Can Finland put pressure on Turkey?

In Finland According to the experts interviewed, there are limited means for the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğania could be pressured to accept Finnish and Swedish NATO applications. Indeed, any pressure would come from large NATO countries such as the United States, Britain, France and Germany.

According to Särkä, Finland’s foreign policy is not based on trade, intimidation or blackmail at all. According to him, Turkey’s possible EU membership is one of Finland’s only trump cards, but it has not been a topical issue for years either.

“We could say that we have supported your membership aspirations. On the other hand, Finland could be a facilitator of the talks if Turkey’s EU membership comes up again, but it is not even in sight, ”says Särkkä.

However, he does not believe that other NATO countries want to see the situation prolonged indefinitely, but that political pressure on Turkey is constantly growing.

According to Penttilä, Finland’s almost the only means of pressure would be to emphasize that Finland takes Turkey’s security concerns seriously, but Turkey must also take Finland’s security concerns seriously.

“We can say that as a future NATO country, we start from the premise that there must be mutual solidarity between the countries and that security concerns must be taken into account on both sides. And we expect Turkey to be ready for that too. ”

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