NATO response to Putin's attacks: experts fear quick action

The sky is becoming the battlefield of a possible conflict between Russia and NATO. In Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is showing staying power.

Kyiv – Niklas Masuhr was wrong. But huge. Or the Americans were wrong. Or Vladimir Putin is fooling them all: In February, Russia's dictator set off his third fireworks display in the Ukraine war in the form of massive air strikes – at a cost of almost 400 million euros, according to the magazine DefenseExpress reported. Previously, he is said to have squandered almost 600 million euros in January of this year.

Niklas Masuhr would never have imagined such massive blows at the end of the second year of the war. More than a year ago, the researcher… Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurich opposite Federal Agency for Civic Education clearly outlined a different assessment of the situation.

“If you look at observers like that Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, DC believes that the recent massive missile strike with around 100 missiles on Ukraine was one of the last major attacks for the time being. Russia will soon no longer be able to afford to use self-guided precision weapons such as Iskander or Kalibr missiles for such a complex strike – i.e. rockets. The Russian army is running out of precision ammunition. There were only limited supplies from the start, and a certain proportion of them will probably be held back for a possible escalation with NATO.” A complete misjudgment.

Putin's arms industry: an inexhaustible arsenal – thanks to German help

Because the present at the front currently looks different. While many offensives are stuck on the front lines, Putin's army is expanding its air strikes in the Ukraine war. Germans and other Western companies are still diligently playing into the hands of the Russian arms industry, according to research by the editorial team ARD-Magazine monitor. As international support for Ukraine crumbles, Russia's weapons arsenal appears to be inexhaustible. This is probably also due to the fact that Western technology continues to be delivered to Russia despite numerous sanctions from the European Union. Despite all the sanctions, it is a horror with no foreseeable end.

Experts continue to believe that the primary goal of these attacks appears to be to break Ukraine's will to resist. The aim is to worsen the humanitarian situation to such an extent that the Ukrainian population will put pressure on the government in Kiev. What makes matters worse is that the Russian side currently lacks the momentum to carry out other far-reaching operations to regain the initiative. Masuhr: “Such missile attacks are the only means that Russia currently has to hit Ukraine.” An expensive campaign. The Kyiv Post provides estimates of the Forbes Magazine underlying.

In view of the dimensions of the Russian offensives, NATO is discussing controversially – politicians are expecting something bad, but science is seeing Russia's furs slipping away more clearly with every day of the Ukraine campaign. Scandinavians, who are more likely to be known for their peace and quiet, are currently spreading a hint of panic: Denmark should accelerate its military investments after new evidence suggests that Russia is rearming faster than expected and that it could attack a NATO country within three to five years, said the Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of the newspaper Jyllands Posten. “Russia’s capacity to produce military equipment has increased enormously,” he said.

It is conceivable that Russia will put Article 5 and NATO's solidarity to the test within three to five years. “That was not NATO’s assessment in 2023, but new findings that are now emerging,” said Lund Poulsen. Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) spoke of up to eight years of preparation time. In the short term, the risk of an attack on the alliance is likely to be low, argues Lydia Wachs from the Think tank Foundation Science and Politics: Russia's military capabilities, including its missiles, are sufficient to continue the war in Ukraine – in any case, there are no immediate bottleneck
s visible – the average number of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles deployed alone speaks volumes.

Putin's missile losses: 44 of 64 missiles fell victim to anti-aircraft defense

At the same time, the country probably needs the remaining capacities for its political and military goals in Ukraine. In the medium to long term, however, it is expected that Russia will be able to fully restore its capabilities. Wachs calculates that even then, Russia would probably have too few cruise missiles and rockets to wage a lengthy conventional war with NATO. The war in Ukraine is undoubtedly depleting Russian arsenals; In addition, the precision of the weapons suffers. Of the 64 missiles that recently penetrated Ukraine, Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses took 44 out of the sky. Of these, 26 are Kh-101/Kh-555/Kh-55 cruise missiles, 3 are Kalibr cruise missiles and 15 are drones.

So far, Russia has apparently been unable to destroy or significantly weaken Ukraine's air defenses and is therefore using its air forces in a rather low-risk manner. Nevertheless, missiles are the weapon of choice for Vladimir Putin, which is why the solidarity of NATO partners is all the more important. The second step of the “Sky Shield Initiative” has been achieved since the middle of last year. “To strengthen common air defense, 19 European countries are currently joining forces to procure the appropriate weapon systems and ensure operations,” said Federal Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius (SPD) in Brussels at the end of last year. The framework conditions for cooperative purchasing are thus becoming more concrete in order to save costs for Europe and keep operating costs low.

Putin's future terror: Arrow-3 – experts frown on this

Therefore, Germany is also purchasing IRIS-T SLM (Infrared Imaging System – Tail/Thrust Vector-controlled, Surface Launched Medium Range) weapon systems, which have already proven themselves under combat conditions in Ukraine. However, the Bundeswehr currently lacks systems capable of protecting German territory against long-range missiles. The federal government is therefore purchasing the Israeli-American Arrow 3 missile defense system for around four billion euros – a type of satellite that rams the enemy missile at an altitude of around 100 kilometers on its trajectory and thereby destroys it

The purchase met with broad approval in political Berlin, but internationally it raised eyebrows. Unlike the Bundeswehr's existing Patriot and recently ordered Iris-T air defense systems, Arrow-3 appears to be completely unsuitable for intercepting Russian rockets or cruise missiles. Arrow defends high up in Earth's atmosphere – the Russian missiles dive underneath. Simon Højbjerg Petersen, a ballistic missile defense expert, called the purchase of Arrow-3 “the strangest procurement decision I have seen in a long time,” writes Frank Kuhn.