NATO | Did Marin close the NATO door with his comments? Experts evaluate the prime minister’s message

Prime minister Sanna Marin (sd) said in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday that Finland did notvery likely“Apply for NATO membership during his tenure.

Marin’s comments soon sparked a burst of criticism in the opposition. Later, Marin himself said In the exam of Ilta-Sanomatthat the interview has been overinterpreted.

Did Marin’s NATO message hit the finish line? HS asked two experts what interpretations of Marini’s comments could be made.

This section of the Reuters interview can be viewed here:

Read more: Coalition Party Orpo criticizes Prime Minister Marinia for closing NATO door: “Not in line with foreign and security policy report”

Read more: Prime Minister Marin in Ilta-Sanomat’s exam: NATO position unchanged, “overinterpretations” made of Reuters interview

Did it decrease Prime Minister’s comments on the possible restraining effect of Finland’s NATO option on Russia? Director of the Foreign Policy Institute Mika Aaltola is moderate in its response.

“Marin, for his part, clarified that a NATO application has not been ruled out, but an application is highly unlikely during the remaining good year of this term. I would not see that there is and should not be any line conflict with the past. The message from foreign policy leadership must be consistent. ”

In the past, government programs have ruled that NATO will not be applied for during the term.

“Marin, for his part, retained the possibility of a NATO application during this term of office, although he considers it very unlikely to materialize.”

Research Director Hanna Smith The Center for Hybrid Competence interprets that Marin did not close the NATO door in any way, on the contrary.

“The NATO debate has been moved in a more sensible direction. The no-frills debate has never taken this forward. Now there are different ways to discuss NATO, and one may wonder if Marin is suggesting that NATO will be a pretty big topic in the next election. ”

He points out that Finland’s membership in NATO would take so long to accelerate that Finland would probably not have time to become a member during Marin’s term. The next parliamentary elections will be held in spring 2023.

The NATO position must also have the support of the people, Smith says. Currently the latest HS opinion poll According to 28 percent of Finns, Finland wants to join NATO.

Aaltolan according to the president Sauli Niinistö new year’s speech “Crystallizes” the NATO door to be open and Finland itself to decide on possible membership.

“Russia’s demands in Europe are a cause for concern, and the crystallization of the NATO case was an important act at that time. He also brought on his blog point out that the rush is counterbalanced by moderation. ”

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“Whether we want to play a side game or what’s essential.” – Mika Aaltola

The president has repeated the saying in various wordings that the Cossack takes everything that comes off.

Is Russia now more willing to export parts of Ukraine in addition to Crimea? President of the United States Joe Biden you hinted in its press conference that Russia’s “minor incursion” into Ukraine would not trigger sanctions.

“Biden press conference some word choices were corrected pretty quickly in the White House. He also said that he had talked to the Prime Minister of Finland but meant the President. He still emphasizes Ukraine’s territorial integrity and that violating it will trigger massive sanctions, ”says Aaltola.

“From Finland’s point of view, nothing has changed. The NATO opportunity has survived and is crystal clear. ”

Read more: Biden’s comments on “low intrusion” into Ukraine did not raise, the White House hurried to explain

Sodan According to Hanna Smith, igniting in Ukraine alone would not solve Finland’s decision to join.

“Nothing goes so fast. The fact that Russia is behaving disgusting does not mean that it must now rush into NATO immediately. The whole is so much broader and has more nuances than Russia. The war situation really seldom triggers such a fundamental change in politics in the blink of an eye. ”

According to Aaltola, a NATO application could be problematic in a crisis situation.

“Then we would apply for approval from NATO countries and the United States in the interim election year. Whether we want to play a side game or what’s essential, ”he ponders.

So what’s essential?

“I can always recommend, and I recommend continuing, that Finland’s NATO relationship is not either or. Finland has actively developed NATO co-operation as a partner. We have bilateral relations with Washington that some NATO countries may envy. And we have an agreement on defense cooperation with Norway across the NATO border. ”

According to Aaltola, this path could be continued by agreeing on greater cooperation with Estonia across the NATO border in order to increase security in the Gulf of Finland.

Finland is, according to Aaltola, “the most capable militarily equipped state in the Nordic region” and, as such, a coveted partner with a precise audience for its views and actions.

“By committing to independent defense, steps can also be taken with regard to the collective security of the Baltic Sea, which will create arrests and be messages and signals. We have the opportunity for NATO and the opportunity to further deepen defense cooperation with the United States, NATO and Sweden, for example. It makes a lot of sense to tighten the screw when you need it. ”

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“At some point it will be said that when you are not a member, you are not.” – Hanna Smith

According to Aaltola, this continuation of deepening co-operation without actual NATO membership has not yet been fully utilized.

“It can be added, taking care that Finland will continue to be a desired partner whose messages are listened to.”

According to Hanna Smith, Finland should already be discussing more than just what Russia thinks about NATO membership. Russia will also notice in due course if Finland does not intend to join NATO but only threatens to do so.

“Playing with a NATO option in the direction of Russia will at some point start to lose its brightest tip,” Smith says.

In due course According to Smith, the establishment of Finland’s NATO option in the foreign and security policy debate was revolutionary, when before that the position was clear no.

Since then, Smith has argued that the NATO debate has stalled over the perceived NATO option and the debate over membership without further explanation. Smith sees only a little more courage in the NATO debate.

The benefits and implications of maintaining the NATO option should still be discussed further, Smith said. What would that mean for relations between Finland, the United States and other NATO countries, for example?

According to Smith, NATO’s open door policy is also becoming obsolete, and Finland cannot be confident that it will remain the same forever. NATO’s current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg the season will also end next fall. Sooner or later, NATO will also have to redefine itself.

“At some point it will be said that when you are not a member, then you are not a member.”