More and more cities in Ukraine, like Mariupol here, are being destroyed by Russian troops. But NATO is determined to exercise restraint.
Image: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
As long as Ukraine is an independent state, there is no scenario in which NATO should intervene in the war. A guest post.
GIs there a situation in which it could be justified or even necessary for the West to intervene militarily in the war between Russia and Ukraine? It is important to know that this intervention would most likely mean a spread of war across Europe and escalation to global nuclear war. President Putin has made it clear that he would not shy away from using nuclear weapons. His warnings are believable. The Russian nuclear doctrine, co-developed by Putin himself, envisages the early use of tactical, i.e. small, nuclear weapons in regional conflicts with the aim of forcing the opposing side to de-escalate, i.e. to give way (escalate to de-escalate).
A further escalation cannot be ruled out, but is more likely because the US counterpart to the Russian doctrine, the Nuclear Posture Review, refuses to back down in this situation and intends to retaliate against a tactical use of nuclear weapons by Russia with a limited nuclear strike. This opens the door to a further nuclear escalation, which would first mean the mutual destruction of military installations, then of population centers and finally of human livelihoods.
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